North Korea’s second straight day of positive statements concerning inter-Korean engagement are a means to get South Korea to advocate on its behalf with the United States for sanctions relief rather than a serious attempt at improving ties with Seoul, according to diplomatic observers.
Kim Yo-jong, the powerful sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, issued a statement Saturday night that said the totalitarian state was ready to mend ties with South Korea, and may even discuss another summit between their leaders if Seoul scrapped its “double standards” and hostility toward Pyongyang.
The remarks came a day after she also described President Moon Jae-in’s proposal to formally end the Korean War as “admirable,” while adding her country was willing to discuss this if certain conditions were met. Moon made the peace overture at last week’s 76th Session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
“Kim Yo-jong’s latest statements may be part of Pyongyang’s efforts to continue baiting Seoul,” said Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst now with the Rand Corp.
“Time is not on the Moon administration’s side. Pyongyang is clearly aware of this ― and the Moon administration has also worn its emotions on its sleeve by continuing to underscore the importance of inter-Korean reconciliation at nearly every possible opportunity.”
President Moon is scheduled to leave office in May next year.
Harry Kazianis, senior director of Korean Studies at the Center for the National Interest, said the North Korean leader sees his South Korean counterpart as someone who could, once again, be a bridge for better rapport with the U.S., that would help alleviate his country’s desperate economic situation, which has been exacerbated by COVID-19 and international sanctions.
“The DPRK knows President Moon wants to take one last shot at forging a peace regime on the Korean Peninsula, while the North wants sanctions relief,” Kazianis said. The DPRK is an acronym for the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, the official name of North Korea.
“It seems to me that due to these factors ― and if the U.S. is at least willing to entertain some sort of sanctions relief ― an inter-Korean summit seems inevitable,” he added.
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a professor of international relations at King’s College London, said North Korea was well aware that relations with the U.S. will only improve in parallel with inter-Korean relations now that the Joe Biden administration is in office.
“With the U.S. indicating its willingness to talk, Pyongyang also needs to talk to Seoul if it is going to try to resume dialogue with Washington,” he said.
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| President Moon Jae-in poses with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during their summit in Pyongyang, Sept. 19, 2018. Korea Times file |
Soo Kim said the indirect method via Seoul may be more effective in relaying North Korea’s demands rather than directly approaching the U.S.
“Through Seoul, Kim has an advocate that will not only go to bat for Pyongyang, but even take it upon itself to proactively and voluntarily push on behalf of the North Korean regime ― without Kim’s prodding,” she said.
“The Kim regime does not really have to do much, because the heavy lifting appears to be done by Seoul.”
Inter-Korean ties have been deadlocked since February 2019 when the Hanoi summit between the U.S. and North Korea ended without a deal on denuclearization. In addition, the North has been unresponsive via its communication channels with South Korea since August to protest Seoul-Washington combined military exercises.
In that respect, some are questioning an ulterior motive behind Pyongyang’s unexpected shift in tone regarding Seoul, with Kazianis saying China is pulling the North’s strings to avoid another crisis ramping up tensions on the Korean Peninsula as in 2017.
“My guess is China is pushing Kim Jong-un to explore detente once more with the South, as Xi Jinping does not want another problem with the U.S., considering relations between the two superpowers these days,” he said.
