Japan, once a non-factor in the North Korea denuclearization negotiations during the four years of former U.S. President Donald Trump, is expected to have a bigger say under President Joe Biden, who is strongly seeking more trilateral cooperation with South Korea and Japan on the decades-long challenge, according to diplomatic observers.
However, it remains to be seen if the envisaged three-way cooperation will play up to Biden’s expectations due to lingering animosity between Seoul and Tokyo over historical issues that have prevented them from coming together over their common security interest, with the experts advising Washington to make efforts to insulate trilateral cooperation from historical grievances.
“Overall, the Biden administration is going to seek to strengthen all U.S. alliances and improve dialogue and coordination with all U.S. allies. This will include South Korea and Japan in addressing the North Korean nuclear challenge,” U.S. Naval War College professor Terence Roehrig said.
Robert Manning, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, also said there is no way to address the challenges from North Korea without a strong coalition and it starts with South Korea and Japan.
“With regard to Japan, as initial Biden administration discussions with Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga and other senior officials demonstrate, they see Japan as the keystone of U.S. forward presence in East Asia, and the U.S.-Japan alliance as a force multiplier with regard to both Indo-Pacific and global strategy,” Manning said.
In fact, the new U.S. administration has provided glimpses of its decision to include Japan in dealing with the North Korean nuclear problem.
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| From left are President Moon Jae-in, U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga / Korea Times file |
According to the U.S. State Department, Foreign Minister Kang Kyung-wha and State Secretary Antony Blinken had a phone conversation, Wednesday, the top American diplomat highlighted the importance of continued trilateral U.S.-South Korea-Japan cooperation as well as the continued need for the denuclearization of North Korea ― a repetition from his confirmation hearing, during which he welcomed conversation with South Korea and Japan on North Korea issues before rethinking the U.S. policy and approach toward Pyongyang.
In addition, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Japanese counterpart Nobuo Kishi agreed in their phone talks, Jan. 24, on working toward the complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement (CVID) of North Korea’s nuclear program. Also, they agreed to cooperate to block illegal ship-to-ship transfers by North Korean vessels to cut off sources of funding for the North’s nuclear and missile programs.
Despite the U.S.’ drive for the inclusion of Japan in its solution to the North Korean nuclear issue, the frayed bilateral ties between South Korea and Japan would make cooperation uneasy.
Relations between the U.S.’ two key Asian allies have been eroded badly in recent years over rows surrounding historical issues of wartime forced labor and sex slavery that Koreans suffered when the country was a colony of Japan from 1910 to 1945.
The experts advised the two countries to first remain mindful of common security concerns, while working to settle the history-related pending issues.
“Strategists in Seoul tend to worry that trilateral cooperation with the U.S. and Japan could provoke Pyongyang to cancel exchanges, create costly distance with China or elicit domestic political backlash,” said Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University.
“But currently there is no inter-Korean cooperation to lose, Beijing is diplomatically isolated because of human rights and the pandemic, and most South Koreans believe relations with Tokyo should be improved.
“The new Biden administration offers an opportunity for closer trilateral coordination that would give Seoul leverage against North Korean provocations and Chinese economic coercion, make alliance cost-sharing negotiations easier and provide political cover to smooth over historical and trade disputes with Japan.”
Manning said trilateral intelligence and security cooperation is essential given the geopolitical realities of Northeast Asia, especially in the face of Pyongyang’s aggressive buildup of new ballistic missiles and nuclear capabilities.
“In this predicament, neither the ROK nor Japan can afford to be consumed by the ghosts of historical grievances and animosities with risking their respective national security as well as that of the U.S.,” he said. The ROK refers to the Republic of Korea, South Korea’s official name.
Roehrig said, “While Seoul and Tokyo work through these issues, both need to recognize the common security concerns they have, and North Korea is one of them. Any possibility for dialogue between them is a good thing and may help support efforts to address other issues.”
However, even if the U.S. successfully establishes a trilateral security partnership, it is not all settled due to their divergent views on how to resolve the North’s nuclear issue, the observers noted.
“The dilemma will come with the policy differences in Seoul and Tokyo over dealing with North Korea as the Moon government remains committed to a pro-engagement approach while Japan maintains a much harder line on dealing with North Korea,” Roehrig said.
Van Jackson, a professor of Victoria University of Wellington and former Pentagon official, said, “I think functionally oriented trilateral cooperation is a good and needed thing, but I also think that depending on the severity of tensions with Tokyo, Seoul might hold trilateralism itself at risk to make a point.”
Adding that trilateral policies toward North Korea are not expected to change or improve the nuclear confrontation with Pyongyang, Jackson said the South Korean government should take a leading role in handling the issue.
“If I were in the Blue House, I’d do everything in my power to convince the Biden administration that Seoul ― not Tokyo ― has the right formula for stabilizing the Korean Peninsula,” Jackson said. The Blue House refers to Cheong Wa Dae, the South Korean presidential office.
“It’s worth remembering that the disastrous policy of maximum pressure in 2017 was actually Japan’s idea,” he said. “If Seoul will ever convince Washington of a peace and reconciliation policy, it will be in the next year. If not, it may never happen.”
The bad blood between its allies that is inhibiting the U.S. from keeping a rising China in check is not a strange situation to Biden, as former President Barack Obama brokered a meeting between then-President Park Geun-hye and then-Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2014.
Biden was Obama’s vice president for eight years and he is urged to follow in his former boss’ footsteps.
“The U.S. can be an important intermediary to help both sides manage their relations and by quietly working together with its allies on the common economic and security interests they have,” Roehrig said.
“Moreover, Washington can support trilateral cooperation in ways that provide cover for both allies from the domestic blowback that is inevitable when Tokyo and Seoul seek bilateral cooperation. But there are no easy answers.”
Manning expects that the Biden administration will make efforts to mend fences between South Korea and Japan as the U.S. sees it as “a priority for its Indo-Pacific policies to resolve the ROK-Japan dispute and forge a strong U.S.-ROK-Japan partnership.”
“As President Moon has indicated the validity of the 1965 ROK-Japan normalization deal and the 2015 comfort women’s accord, I think the potential exists to adjudicate and diplomatically address the current dispute consistent with the rules-based order that both democracies adhere to,” he said.
“I expect a serious U.S. diplomatic effort to facilitate such an outcome and turn a page so that both the ROK and Japan can focus on the future.”
