The ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) — whose preferred candidate Andrzej Duda is the current president and overwhelming favourite to win the election — wants an all-postal ballot to avoid worsening the country’s COVID-19 outbreak.
It put legislation forward to do this, which MPs swiftly approved. But the bill was struck down by the opposition-held Senate earlier this week.
The Sejm, Poland’s lower house of parliament, could still overturn the Senate’s decision. But the PiS’ majority on the issue has since thinned and the proposal has exacerbated divisions with its coalition partners.
So what next?
MPs began a debate on Tuesday and a vote is expected late on Wednesday or Thursday.
Andrius Tursa, from the political risk consultancy Teneo Intelligence, said a weakened PiS could still decide to withdraw the legislation in order to save face “if it becomes clear that they don’t have the support” needed.
If they do go ahead “the vote will be very close”, Tursa told Euronews, stressing that “divisions within the ruling camp are significant” which has increased “the chance of the bill failing to pass”.
Should PiS secure a majority, the election is still unlikely to take place on Sunday, Tursa said, because of “significant logistical issues” to ensure the all-postal vote — which would be a first for the country — runs smoothly.
The government, which argues that the constitution requires the presidential election to be held in May, signalled this week that a two-week postponement could be on the cards. The first round of the election would then take place on May 23.
If PiS loses the vote in parliament, the delay would then be much longer — a choice favoured by the opposition and rights group, including Human Rights Watch.
The NGO warned last week that an all-postal vote in May would “dangerously undermine” democracy warning that the short time frame to create the infrastructure made it unlikely “that the process will guarantee fairness and transparency”.
It also stressed that campaigning was halted in mid-March due to the COVID-19 pandemic which would give PiS-backed incumbent Andrzej Duda “an unfair advantage”.
The EU Commission, meanwhile, “reiterated the importance of free and fair presidential elections in Poland, in the context of the coronavirus crisis” during their latest meeting, a Commission spokesperson told reporters on Wednesday.
‘Playing hardball’
Opposition parties want the government to declare a state of national emergency which bans the holding of any elections during the emergency period and 90 days afterwards.
“A more radical option,” Tursa explained in a note, “could be the voluntary resignation of Duda, which would allow the speaker of the Sejm to set the new election date within the next 74-day period.”
For Aleks Szczerbiak, professor of politics at the University of Sussex, “the ruling party could be playing hardball on the question of election timing so that it can negotiate the most favourable terms for the delay”.
“The government’s supporters believe that scheduling the election in the autumn, which the opposition is calling for, could be extremely problematic because the coming months are likely to bring an economic slowdown, if not outright recession,” he added in a blog post.
Duda has seen a surge in popularity during the pandemic with polls giving him more than 50 per cent of the vote, which if confirmed, would negate the need for a second round.
Therefore for PiS, the timing of the election is almost an existential question.
“Internal frictions have already led to the resignation of Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Gowin last month,” Tursa noted. If MPs from his Agreement party withhold their support for PiS this week, it may lead to “policy gridlock”.
Szczerbiak added that Gowin has been negotiating with the opposition and that distancing himself and his party further from PiS “has made him a pivotal figure in Polish politics”.
If his MPs follow him, PiS would not be able to secure a majority which “could also lead to major re-alignment in Polish politics”.
