Among the countries considering accepting the deployments are Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary. The deployments would number approximately 1,000 personnel to each country and would be similar to the forward battle groups currently stationed in the Baltic States and Poland.

The US and UK are among those considering the new, pre-invasion deployments, but not all 30 NATO members are willing, according to a European diplomat.

NATO allies have not been entirely on the same page about the severity of the threat, and Germany, for example, has refused to sell new weaponry to Ukraine. Therefore, the US is in discussions to send the additional forces on a bilateral basis or, as one official described it, as a “coalition of the willing.”

Broadly, the US military goal would be to “meet the capability” NATO allies in the region are asking for, another defense official said last week. US forces could operate, as they already do, unilaterally in Europe, but could also operate under existing NATO command structures.

The possibility of deploying some forces closer to Russia’s doorstep before an invasion marks a shift by the administration, which had previously been wary of the risk of further provoking Moscow. The move could be weaponized by the Kremlin as an example of the kind of aggressive NATO posture that Russia has been using to justify its buildup of forces along Ukraine’s borders.

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said on Monday that the US has put 8,500 troops in the US on heightened alert in case a NATO Response Force is called up and American forces are needed quickly. However, the vast majority of these forces are intended for activity supported by the full NATO alliance. The US and NATO have tens of thousands of other troops already in Europe to draw on for any additional deployments to Eastern European allies.

Kirby told CNN on Tuesday that some troops are also on heightened alert “just for our own United States purposes to see if there’s a need for us to continue to reassure on a bilateral basis with some of our NATO allies over in Europe.” And President Joe Biden also said on Tuesday that he “may be moving some of those troops in the nearer term, just because it takes time” and because the US’ eastern European allies have “reason for concern.”

President Biden was originally planning to deliver remarks to the public on the situation with Russia as early as this week, two sources said, but it is now unclear whether he will as the White House continues to try and engage with Russia diplomatically.

The military planning comes as the US has become increasingly concerned that a further Russian invasion of Ukraine could happen at any time and on short notice.

“When we said it was imminent, it remains imminent,” White House press secretary Jen Psaki said during a daily briefing on Tuesday. “But again, we can’t make a prediction of what decision President Putin will make. We’re still engaged in diplomatic discussions and negotiations.”

Ukrainian officials pushed back on Psaki’s language on Tuesday, calling the situation with Russia “dangerous” but not “imminent.”

A source close to Ukrainian leadership said Tuesday that the defense and intelligence chiefs are analyzing satellite images of Russian forces “from the US and other western agencies” on an hourly basis, but are not yet seeing Russia “getting into combat mode, or positioning themselves to attack.”

If any Russian order to attack is given, the source added, Ukraine believes it would still take between one and two weeks for Russian forces near the border to be ready.

In its written responses to Russia’s security demands, which US officials could present to the Kremlin as soon as Wednesday, the US is unlikely to allow any room for negotiation on NATO’s open-door policy, which is President Vladimir Putin’s central grievance. For that reason, there is some concern within the administration that Moscow will use the US response as a pretext to say diplomacy has failed.

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The US and other Western nations released a joint statement on Monday saying they were “profoundly concerned by recent reports of the Ethiopian government’s detention of large numbers of Ethiopian citizens on the basis of their ethnicity and without charge”, and urging a halt to all such arrests.

“Individuals are being arrested and detained without charges or a court hearing and are reportedly being held in inhumane conditions. Many of these acts likely constitute violations of international law and must cease immediately,” the countries said.

Ethiopia’s government declared a nationwide state of emergency in early November after the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) rebel group claimed major advances on a key highway to the capital Addis Ababa.

Troubling reports have emerged since then, with Ethiopia’s state-affiliated human rights watchdog estimating that thousands of people have been rounded up.

Lawyers and rights groups have said the detentions appear largely to target Tigrayans based on their ethnicity alone.

Unarmed vigilantes search a pedestrian in a neighborhood in Addis Ababa, 
Ethiopia [File: Tiksa Negeri/Reuters]

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s spokeswoman Billene Seyoum told a news conference on Tuesday that the measures were not targeting “any particular group of people based on their ethnic identity”.

“Insinuating in that regard is misguided, it’s not only misguided but it’s also perpetuating a destructive narrative,” she said, adding that detentions were “based on credible evidence and testimony”.

Her comments came shortly after the government announced it had retaken the key strategic towns of Dessie and Kombolcha on Monday.

After the rebels reported major territorial gains as part of a march towards Addis Ababa, Abiy announced last month that he would head to the battlefield.

On Wednesday, the government announced that pro-Abiy forces had recaptured the UNESCO World Heritage Site of Lalibela, which had fallen to the Tigrayan fighters in August.

The TPLF has dismissed the government’s claims, saying rebels were making strategic withdrawals and remained undefeated.

Much of northern Ethiopia is under a communications blackout and access for journalists is heavily restricted, making battlefield claims difficult to corroborate.

The war broke out when Abiy sent troops into the northernmost Tigray region to remove the TPLF government – a move he said came in response to attacks on federal army camps.

However, the Tigrayan forces mounted a comeback, recapturing most of Tigray by June, including the regional capital Mekelle, before expanding into the neighboring regions of Amhara and Afar.

The year-long war has killed thousands of civilians, forced millions to flee their homes, and made more than nine million people dependent on food aid.

Last month, the US embassy announced it was ordering the departure of non-emergency staff, days after countries including Saudi Arabia, Norway, Sweden and Denmark urged their citizens to leave Ethiopia amid the continuing conflict.

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The US announced sanctions Monday against two Chinese officials for “serious human rights abuses” against Uyghur Muslims, a step coordinated with the European Union, Canada and the United Kingdom, which imposed sanctions on the same individuals and others, the Treasury Department said.

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