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After a hotly-contested first round of elections on Sunday, Turkey will have a run-off vote on May 28.

Here’s what we may see happen next:

What can we expect from the run-off?

Analysts predict that incumbent candidate Recep Tayyip Erdogan is more likely to win in a second round as he garnered a five-percentage point advantage from Sunday’s first-round vote against his main contender, Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

With more than 99 percent of votes counted, Erdogan had received 49.51 percent of the vote, electoral chief Ahmet Yener said. Kilicdaroglu had secured 44.89 percent, according to Yener, citing results from the Supreme Election Council.

Overall, Erdogan performed better than expected, with his alliance also managing to secure a majority in the 600-seat parliament.

Political analyst Ali Carkoglu said Erdogan has “the momentum behind him” following those polls.

“Erdogan maintained his base of support in the heartland of Anatolia, although he lost some support in the southeast … He also maintained some credible level of support in the big cities,” Carkoglu told Al Jazeera.

“He was very successful also in the earthquake-hit regions. Some people find it surprising, but he apparently delivered what they expected of him and promises that he will deliver even better in the aftermath of the election,” the analyst added.

Meanwhile, there are some members of the opposition who are disappointed with Kilicdaroglu and consider him the wrong candidate as he was not able to chip away the conservative votes, Al Jazeera’s Zeina Khodr said.

As for the third-place candidate, Sinan Ogan, he did better than expected, becoming a potential “kingmaker” who could play a pivotal role in the outcome of the second round if he endorses one of the two candidates facing off.

Ogan has yet to make any such endorsement. Onur Erim, an analyst at Dragoman Strategies, told Al Jazeera that he will want ministries or vice presidencies in exchange for an endorsement.

What are the opposition’s challenges?

The opposition alliance will have its work cut out for it in reassuring its supporters that it is the alliance that can take Erdogan out, given how dismayed they are about the results of the first round.

Dozens of opposition officials were shocked at the poor result and are scrambling to rethink strategy, they told Reuters news agency.

The opposition will have to appeal to factions of the population who are questioning Kilicdaroglu’s alliance with the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), which the Turkish government considers to be a political wing of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has been fighting the Turkish state since the 1980s, during which time tens of thousands have died.

But that may be a challenge, as Erdogan has linked the opposition to the PKK. At a rally before Sunday’s vote, he showed his supporters a fake video of a PKK commander singing an opposition campaign song.

“We have two weeks. We need a quick recovery,” one official told Reuters.

What would an Erdogan victory mean?

An Erdogan win would grant him a third term, extending his two-decade rule and in continuation of him being the longest-serving leader the country has known.

Under him, Turkey would see a continuation of the presidential system that was adopted in 2018.

To relieve rising living costs, he has promised to introduce subsidized energy bills and hikes to pensions, public workers’ salaries and the minimum wage. Additionally, he will lower interest rates to tackle the country’s economic crisis.

Erdogan also said he will wage an independent foreign policy that will continue to influence the region and elsewhere in Africa and Central Asia.

Still, his critics say he has stifled dissent in the last decade of his rule, especially by cracking down on opposition groups.

What would a Kilicdaroglu victory mean?

A Kilicdaroglu win would symbolize the yearning of large parts of the electorate for change and would change Erdogan’s reputation as the country’s most electorally successful politician.

The centrist leader is promising a return to a “strong parliamentary system”, a solution to the “Kurdish issue”, a return of Syrian refugees back home, and closer relations with the European Union and the United States under a more muted foreign policy.

While promising further democratization, the opposition has also said it will return to more conventional economic policies in a manifesto under the banner: “I promise you, spring will come again.”

Still, Erdogan’s parliamentary majority will mean that the opposition will have a tough time passing legislation in the Grand National Assembly.

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“We condemn in the strongest possible terms the vile attack on our holy book … Permitting this anti-Islam act, which targets Muslims and insults our sacred values, under the guise of freedom of expression is completely unacceptable,” the Turkish Foreign Ministry said.

Its statement was issued after an anti-immigrant politician from the far-right fringe burned a copy of the Quran near the Turkish Embassy. The Turkish ministry urged Sweden to take necessary actions against the perpetrators and invited all countries to take concrete steps against Islamophobia.

A separate protest took place in the city supporting Kurds and against Sweden’s bid to join NATO. A group of pro-Turkish demonstrators also held a rally outside the embassy. All three events had police permits.

Swedish Foreign Minister Tobias Billstrom said that Islamophobic provocations were appalling.

“Sweden has a far-reaching freedom of expression, but it does not imply that the Swedish Government, or myself, support the opinions expressed,” Billstrom said on Twitter.

The Quran-burning was carried out by Rasmus Paludan, leader of Danish far-right political party Hard Line. Paludan, who also has Swedish citizenship, has held a number of demonstrations in the past where he has burned the Quran.

Paludan could not immediately be reached by email for a comment. In the permit he obtained from police, it says his protest was held against Islam and what it called Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan’s attempt to influence freedom of expression in Sweden.

Several Arab countries including Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Kuwait denounced the Quran-burning. “Saudi Arabia calls for spreading the values of dialogue, tolerance, and coexistence, and rejects hatred and extremism,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Sweden and Finland applied last year to join NATO following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine but all 30 member states must approve their bids. Turkey has said Sweden in particular must first take a clearer stance against what it sees as terrorists, mainly Kurdish militants and a group it blames for a 2016 coup attempt.

At the demonstration to protest Sweden’s NATO bid and to show support for Kurds, speakers stood in front of a large red banner reading “We are all PKK”, referring to the Kurdistan Workers Party that is outlawed in Turkey, Sweden, and the United States among other countries, and addressed several hundred pro-Kurdish and left-wing supporters.

“We will continue our opposition to the Swedish NATO application,” Thomas Pettersson, spokesperson for Alliance Against NATO and one of organizers of the demonstration, told Reuters.

Police said the situation was calm at all three demonstrations.

In Istanbul, people in a group of around 200 protesters set fire to a Swedish flag in front of the Swedish consulate in response to the burning of the Quran.

SWEDISH MINISTER’S VISIT CANCELLED

Earlier on Saturday, Turkey said that due to lack of measures to restrict protests, it had cancelled a planned visit to Ankara by the Swedish defence minister.

Jonson said separately that he and Akar had met on Friday during a gathering of Western allies in Germany and had decided to postpone the planned meeting.

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar said he had discussed with Erdogan the lack of measures to restrict protests in Sweden against Turkey and had conveyed Ankara’s reaction to Jonson on the sidelines of a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.

“It is unacceptable not to make a move or react to these (protests). The necessary things needed to be done, measures should have been taken,” Akar said, according to a statement by Turkish Defence Ministry.

Turkey’s Foreign Ministry had already summoned Sweden’s ambassador on Friday over the planned protests.

Finland and Sweden signed a three-way agreement with Turkey in 2022 aimed at overcoming Ankara’s objections to their membership of NATO. Sweden says it has fulfilled its part of the memorandum but Turkey is demanding more, including the extradition of 130 people it deems to be terrorists.

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After four days of telephone diplomacy between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, as well as other officials on both sides, Moscow announced on November 2 that it was rejoining the pact originally brokered by Turkey and the United Nations in July.

“He [Putin] doesn’t agree to open this grain corridor through others. But with me, when I call … straight away he opened the grain corridor,” Erdogan said in an interview with broadcaster ATV on the day of Russia’s U-turn.

Early in the war, Ankara hosted negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials in Istanbul and Antalya.

And on Monday, the heads of the American and Russian foreign intelligence services – the CIA’s Bill Burns and Sergey Nariskin of the SVR – met in Ankara to discuss “threats against international security, starting with the use of nuclear weapons”, Erdogan’s office said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan 
[File: Sputnik/Alexander Demyanchuk/Pool via Reuters]

Since February 24, Ankara has carefully balanced relations with both sides in the war.

Turkey has supplied Ukraine with vital weaponry, such as the much-vaunted Bayraktar drones, but also equipment including Kirpi armoured troop carriers and body armour. Last month the first of four Ada-class corvettes built for Ukraine was launched at an Istanbul shipyard.

As guardian of the Black Sea entrance, Turkey closed its straits to military vessels within days of the war starting, preventing Moscow from reinforcing its fleet.

Meanwhile, Erdogan has maintained regular contact with Putin and, in keeping with Turkey’s policy of only following UN Security Council-approved sanctions, has kept up economic ties as the West turned its back on Russia.

Trade between the Black Sea neighbours has blossomed over the last nine months.

Turkey’s exports to Russia leapt 86 percent last month to $1.15bn while imports from Russia more than doubled to $5.03bn, according to official Turkish figures.

Sun-seeking Russians – as well as yacht-owning oligarchs – have been flocking to Turkey’s beaches this year, with 3.8 million arriving in the first nine months, the second-largest national group after Germans.

Valeria Harmash, a Ukrainian living in Istanbul, says it is painful to see 
Russians ‘living like they don’t care’ about 
the war, while in Turkey [Andy Wilks/Al Jazeera]

For Ukrainians in Turkey, however, sharing Istanbul’s shops and restaurants with Russian tourists and draft dodgers has rubbed salt in the wound.

“It’s very difficult because they started the war and then they run away from Russia and enjoy their lives in places like Turkey,” said Valeria Harmash, a 28-year-old from Kharkiv, whose brother and uncle are on the front line.

“It’s very painful for me – their people, their president destroyed the lives of my family and friends, but I see Russians in Zara, Starbucks and Mango living like they don’t care. I can see it in their faces when they see my Ukraine badge that they don’t feel any sorrow.”

Tourism and other foreign income have proved vital as Erdogan faces Turkey’s worst economic crisis under his 20-year rule and difficult elections next year.

Access to Russian energy has meant Turkey is not facing the same level of price increases seen elsewhere in Europe.

Natural gas from Russia filled 45 percent of Turkey’s needs last year and Ankara has reportedly asked for its payments to be deferred to 2024.

Meanwhile, Putin has floated the idea of Turkey becoming a hub for the sale of Russian gas to the European market.

Large sums of mostly untraceable foreign cash have also flowed into Turkey – $24.9bn between January and September, according to Central Bank figures released on Friday, more than double the same period in 2021 – and have helped prop up its growing current account deficit.

“I think it is now beyond reasonable doubt that these … inflows are predominately Russian money flows, with Putin now firmly pinning his colours to Erdogan’s mast to ensure his re-election,” said Timothy Ash, an associate fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia programme.

The Central Bank did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment at the time of publishing.

However, in a Financial Times interview last month, Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said tourism revenue made up a significant chunk of the unaccounted income, since Russians use cash because sanctions have excluded them from the financial system. He said all the funds were legitimate even though the origins of such cash deposits are impossible to trace.

Mithat Rende, a former Turkish ambassador to Qatar with expertise in energy negotiations, described Putin’s gas hub suggestion as an attempt “to drive a wedge between Turkey and the West and also upset the solidarity between European countries”.

Questions have been raised about the viability of such a hub, given Europe’s desire to wean itself off Russian gas and the additional infrastructure needed.

“If Putin would like to make a gesture towards Turkey, or towards his friend, the president, it’s not by declaring his willingness to make Turkey an energy hub. It’s to postpone the [gas] payments,” Rende added.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, pointed to the arrival of reported Russian capital as a factor in Erdogan’s recent rally in the polls.

“Compared to last June, all major polls suggest Erdogan has consolidated his supporters,” he said. “I think this is more as a result of capital inflows to Turkey during the summer. It was a very good tourism season. Russian money came to Turkey and unemployment decreased a little and the currency more or less stabilised.”

Erdogan’s role in the grain deal – Putin congratulated him as a champion of the world’s poorer countries as he returned to the agreement – has undoubtedly raised the Turkish president’s international standing as he has steadfastly sought mediation between the warring sides.

And Russia, which has deepened its ties with countries such as China, India and Turkey as it has been frozen out by the West, is increasingly reliant on Ankara as a window to the Western world – a position that has raised concerns about sanctions-busting in Washington.

Turkey’s gains due to the war can also be seen in its relationship with its NATO allies and the West, in general.

Swedish and Finnish efforts to join the Atlantic alliance have been blocked by Turkey as it sought concessions from the Nordic states, calling for a crackdown on those it deemed “terrorists” sheltering in the two countries. The new Swedish government has indicated its shifting position over the Kurdish-Syrian YPG, due to the group’s ties to Kurdish rebels who have fought the Turkish state for the last 38 years.

Although Washington has denied a link to the Nordic NATO expansion, Ankara is moving closer to reaching a deal with the US on updating its fleet of F-16 fighter jets.

Erdogan’s balanced approach has generally met with public approval in Turkey.

“It’s right that we don’t get too closely involved in this war,” said Omer Avci, an Istanbul shopkeeper.

“The Russian occupation is terrible but President Erdogan is the one working for peace while the West does nothing. We need peace in the region for ourselves as well as the world.”

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Union for Bread Producers Chairman Cihan Kolivar made the comments to broadcaster Haberturk on Monday as he spoke about the rising price of bread and Turkey’s soaring inflation.

“Bread is the staple food for stupid societies. I speak scientifically, I am not making it up – per capita consumption is 210 kilos in Turkey; and 45-50 kilos in Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England, Japan,” Kolivar said.

“Since our society eats their fill with bread, such rulers have been ruling it for 20 years.”

An Istanbul court on Wednesday remanded him in custody pending trial, state-owned Anadolu news agency reported. Turkey is widely criticized by rights groups and Western allies for limiting freedom of speech.

Critics blame Turkey’s economic ills on Erdogan’s unorthodox monetary policies, which he says are aimed at boosting exports, investment and jobs.

Inflation in October climbed to a 24-year high of 85.5%, having started to surge last year as the lira slumped after the central bank began cutting rates as sought by Erdogan.

Erdogan’s ruling AK Party spokesperson Omer Celik said Kolivar’s remarks constituted hate speech.

“In addition to insulting our nation and bread, this person’s statements show that he is an element of the politics of hostility, the politics of hatred,” Celik said.

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Turkish forces once again targeted areas in northern Syria with artillery and mortars. The Syrian news agency ‘SANA reported on Sunday that the Turkish artillery attacked areas of northern Syria in Al-Hasakah.

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Here are the latest updates:

2 hours ago (06:54 GMT)

Russia would consider gas transit via Ukraine beyond 2024: RIA

Russia will consider continuing to send gas to Europe via Ukraine beyond its current deal which ends in 2024, as long as European countries still want Russian gas and Ukraine’s national transit system works, the RIA news agency has reported citing the foreign ministry.

Despite the war in Ukraine, Russia has continued to ship large quantities of gas across Ukraine into Europe – Moscow’s key global customer for its multibillion-dollar gas exports.

2 hours ago (06:34 GMT)

Chasiv Yar death toll climbs to 46: State Emergency Service

The body of another person was pulled out from under the rubble of the five-story apartment block in Chasiv Yar, the State Emergency Service of Ukraine has said, bringing the total number of dead from the Russian missile attack on Saturday to 46.

2 hours ago (06:19 GMT)

Russian-backed separatists say Ukraine’s forces fired at Luhansk using HIMARS

Russian-backed separatists from the self-declared Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) say Ukraine fired several missiles at Luhansk from the High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) donated by the US.

“From the side of the armed formations of Ukraine, shelling was recorded: 23.35 from the direction of the settlement of Artemovsk (Bakhmut) towards the settlement of Luhansk using HIMARS MLRS (nine missiles),” a representative from the LPR said on Telegram, Russia’s state news agency RIA reported.

2 hours ago (06:00 GMT)

Anti-Russian sentiment growing in occupied Ukraine: UK

The anti-Russian sentiment is growing in occupied Ukraine, and Russian-backed officials are at risk of escalating attacks which would exacerbate the “already significant challenges facing Russian occupiers,” the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said.

“Anti-Russian sentiment in occupied Ukraine is leading to Russian and pro-Russian officials being targeted. The Russian-appointed administration in Velykyi Burluk acknowledged that one of its mayors was killed on 11 July 2022 by a car bombing,” the ministry said in its latest intelligence briefing.

“The targeting of officials is likely to escalate, exacerbating the already significant challenges facing the Russian occupiers and potentially increasing the pressure on already reduced military and security formations,” the briefing added.

The ministry also said Russian forces will likely focus on taking several small towns in the Donetsk region in the coming week, including Siversk and Dolyna, as they approach the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.

3 hours ago (05:40 GMT)

Indonesia hopes for progress in G20 finance leaders’ talks despite war friction

G20 finance leaders will meet in Bali this week for talks that are due to include issues like global food security and soaring inflation, as host Indonesia tries to ensure frictions over the war in Ukraine do not blow discussions off course.

Indonesia has said Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov will address the meeting virtually, with his deputy traveling to Bali. Ukraine’s finance minister has also been invited and is due to attend one session virtually.

Indonesia hopes to issue a communique when talks wrap up on Saturday though its central bank governor said the meeting would be summarised in a chair’s statement if that is not feasible.

Indonesian officials have noted disagreements between Western countries and Russia on how to word a draft communique to describe the state of the global economy and how it is being affected by the war in Ukraine, which Moscow calls a “special military operation”.

3 hours ago (05:36 GMT)

Four killed, eight injured in Donetsk: Governor

Four civilians were killed and eight injured in Russian attacks in the Donetsk region on Tuesday, the regional governor has said.

“During July 12, the Russians killed four civilians of Donbas: two in Avdiivka, one in Bakhmut and one in Chasiv Yar,” Pavlo Kyrylenko wrote on Telegram.

It was unclear whether the death in Chasiv Yar was related to Russia’s Saturday air raid on a five-storey apartment building.

Ukrainian military paramedics attend resident Nina Trofimenko, 86, who was wounded during shelling near the 
front line in the Donbas region, Ukraine July 12, 2022 [Gleb Garanich/Reuters]

4 hours ago (04:51 GMT)

Poland backs measures to boost gas security as energy crisis flares

The Polish cabinet has backed legislation loosening gas trading rules, extending tariff protection for consumers, and contingency planning for grid operators to allow for a swift reaction if the energy crisis deteriorates.

“An exceptional situation on global energy markets caused by Russia’s aggression on Ukraine and surging gas prices … create a necessity for special legal measures that allow for a real-time reaction if the situation deteriorates further,” the government said on Tuesday.

Proposed measures include a suspension of the rules obliging gas companies to trade fuel on the Warsaw exchange if a gas crisis is declared, an extension of tariff protection for 7.1 million small consumers including households until 2027, and contingency planning for gas storage and transmission operators.

“The measures will allow us to use gas storage more effectively and increase storage capacity,” Government Spokesperson Piotr Muller told a news briefing.

4 hours ago (04:03 GMT)

Lockheed delivers first model of new rocket launcher to US army

Defence contractor Lockheed Martin has said it handed over the first model of its newest mobile rocket launcher to the US army.

The United States and its allies have recently supplied weapons worth billions of dollars to Ukraine to help it repel an invasion by Russia. Lockheed said the new multiple launch rocket system, named M270A2, can be transported by large military transport aircraft C-17 and C-5.

The United Kingdom, an M270A2 customer, said last month it would supply Ukraine with some of its older multiple-launch rocket systems that can reach targets up to 80km (50 miles) away.

5 hours ago (03:10 GMT)

Ukrainian group to sue Canada for returning Nord Stream 1 turbine

A group representing the Ukrainian diaspora has said it is seeking a judicial review of the Canadian government’s decision to return a repaired turbine to Germany that is needed for the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline.

The Canadian government on Saturday said it was issuing a “time-limited and revocable permit” to exempt the return of turbines from its Russian sanctions as Europe seeks continued energy flows until it can end its dependency on Russian gas.

“This exemption to the sanctions regime against Russia is totally unacceptable,” the Ukrainian World Congress said in a statement. “There are real alternatives to Germany’s gas needs, including buying through Ukraine’s pipeline.”

The Ukrainian World Congress said it had filed a notice of application for judicial review to the Federal Court and was requesting “a declaration that the decision to provide a permit to Siemens was unreasonable and unauthorized and an order quashing the permit.”

6 hours ago (02:18 GMT)

Chasiv Yar death toll hits 45

The death toll after a Russian missile attack on the town of Chasiv Yar has increased to 45, Ukraine’s State Emergency Service has reported.

6 hours ago (01:57 GMT)

UK proposes dropping anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel

The UK’s Trade Remedies Authority (TRA) has proposed dropping anti-dumping measures on Chinese reinforcement steel, saying more imports were needed to meet a fall in supply from other countries because of the war in Ukraine.

The measures have been in place since 2016, but the TRA said maintaining them would not be in the UK’s economic interests given high demand for steel from its construction sector, and a fall in supply from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.

The three countries supplied 27 percent of the UK’s imports of Rebar reinforcing steel in 2020-21, the TRA said, and this would likely drop substantially as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the UK’s subsequent sanctions against Russia and Belarus.

“Our judgement is that the impact on the British economy of higher prices would significantly outweigh the impact on the sole UK producer of rebar of removing tariffs on Chinese imports,” said TRA Chief Executive Oliver Griffiths.

7 hours ago (01:49 GMT)

US concerned critical minerals vulnerable to manipulation amid war

The US energy secretary has said the government is concerned that supplies of critical minerals, used widely in clean energy technology, could be subject to weaponization the way oil and gas have been amid the Ukraine conflict.

“Our concern is that critical minerals could be as subject or vulnerable to manipulation as we’ve seen in other areas, or weaponization,” Jennifer Granholm said at the start of talks with Australia’s resources minister and executives from 14 mining companies at the Sydney Energy Forum.

7 hours ago (01:22 GMT)

LeBron critical of US efforts to get Griner home

US basketball player LeBron James is publicly criticizing his country’s handling of WNBA All-Star Brittney Griner’s case in a trailer for an upcoming episode of his television show: “The Shop: Uninterrupted.”

“Now, how can she feel like America has her back?” James said in the trailer. “I would be feeling like, ‘Do I even wanna go back to America?’”

It is unclear when the show was filmed, although in the trailer it is mentioned that Griner had been in Russia for more than 110 days, which would have been nearly five weeks ago as she was detained on February 17.

Griner is on trial in Russia for drug possession. She pleaded guilty last week and will appear again in court on Thursday. Washington has not disclosed its strategy in the case and the US may have little leverage with Moscow because of strong animosity over its actions in Ukraine.

7 hours ago (01:08 GMT)

Brazil wants to buy a lot of diesel from Russia: Minister

Brazil’s foreign minister has said his country wants to buy as much diesel fuel as it can from Russia following a deal with Moscow.

Carlos França called Russia “a strategic partner” and said Brazil is in short supply of diesel.

“Of course, we have to make sure that we have enough diesel for the Brazilian agribusiness and, of course, for Brazilian drivers,” he said. “So that’s why we were looking … for very reliable suppliers of diesel and Russia is one of them.”

The minister was responding to a question about President Jair Bolsonaro’s comments on Monday in Brasilia that Brazil has “a deal” and Russian diesel “can start getting here within 60 days”. Earlier, the president told supporters that Brazil was about to get “cheaper” diesel from Russia.

8 hours ago (00:00 GMT)

Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and UN to meet Wednesday on grain exports

Military delegations from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey will meet UN officials in Istanbul on Wednesday to discuss a possible deal to resume safe exports of Ukraine’s grain from the major Black Sea port of Odesa, as a global food crisis worsens.

Turkish Defence Minister Hulusi Akar announced the meeting on Tuesday. Turkey has been working with the UN to broker a deal after Russia’s invasion stoked global prices for grains, cooking oils, fuel and fertilizer.

According to diplomats, elements of the plan being discussed include Ukrainian vessels guiding grain ships in and out through mined port waters; Russia agreeing to a truce while shipments move; and Turkey – supported by the UN – inspecting ships to allay Russian fears of weapons smuggling.

“We are working hard indeed but there is still a way to go,” UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres told reporters. “Many people are talking about it. We prefer to try to do it.”

8 hours ago (23:56 GMT)

Zelenskyy quiet on reported civilian deaths from Ukrainian strike

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vaguely alluded to the reported air raid by Ukrainian forces on Nova Kakhovka, in Russia-occupied Kherson, but remained quiet about a Moscow-backed official’s claim that at least seven people, including civilians, were killed in the strike and dozens more injured.

In his nighttime speech to the nation, Zelenskyy mentioned ongoing Russian strikes on Mykolaiv, Kharkiv and areas in the eastern Donbas region. But, he said, “it should also be remembered that even in such conditions, the state takes steps forward – in cooperation with partners – in institutional development. And, of course, on the front line.”

“The occupiers have already felt very well what modern artillery is, and they will not have a safe rear anywhere on our land, which they occupied. They have felt that the operations of our reconnaissance officers to protect their Homeland are much more powerful than any of their ‘special operations’,” he said.

Ukraine’s military said on Tuesday that the attack hit an ammunition dump in the town of Nova Kakhovka and killed 52 Russians. The attack came after Washington supplied Ukraine with advanced high mobility artillery rocket systems (HIMARS), which Kyiv says its forces are using with growing efficiency. Kyiv also says it is planning to retake the occupied Kherson region in a counteroffensive using hundreds of thousands of troops.

9 hours ago (23:39 GMT)

Separatist and self-declared Ukraine statelet defends death penalty

The self-styled Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) on Tuesday opened an embassy in Russia, one of only two countries to recognize the separatist “statelet” in eastern Ukraine, and defended its right to impose capital punishment.

The DPR’s self-proclaimed foreign minister Natalia Nikonorova said the territory’s use of the death penalty – which it has handed down to two Britons and a Moroccan for fighting as “mercenaries” for Ukraine – was irrelevant to its bid for diplomatic recognition.

Asked if capital punishment would tarnish the DPR’s image, she said: “We consider that mercenary activity is indeed a terrible crime because people, for a reward, come to another country to kill other people, despite having no personal goals connected to the conflict in question.”

“Yes, it is the highest measure of punishment, but it is in our legislation and it is not linked to the further process of recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic by other states.”

Olga Makeeva, ambassador of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) to Russia, and Natalya
 Nikonorova, foreign minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, speak to the media outside the 
DPR embassy in Moscow, Russia July 12, 2022 [Evgenia Novozhenina/Reuters]

9 hours ago (23:33 GMT)

Ukraine braces for new Russian offensive in the east

Ukraine is bracing itself for what it expects to be a massive new Russian offensive in the east of the country where Moscow says it is determined to take control of all of the industrial Donbas region.

Russian forces, which earlier this month completed the capture of Luhansk province in the Donbas, have for weeks been shelling parts of neighboring Donetsk.

Regional Donetsk Governor Pavlo Kyrylenko said there was a significant buildup of Russian troops, particularly in the Bakhmut and Siversk areas, and around Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. The entire front line in the region was under constant shelling as Russian troops tried to break through but were being repelled, he said.

He also said a Russian air raid destroyed Bakhmut stadium, used as a training facility for Ukraine’s Olympic athletes before the war.

Employees stand at a stadium damaged by a Russian military attack in Bakhmut, Ukraine, July 12, 2022
 [Gleb Garanich/Reuters]

The post Russia-Ukraine live news: Four-way grain talks to start in Turkey appeared first on News Agency nabakhabar.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has traveled to Turkey for the first time in years for talks with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, aiming to fully normalize ties that were ruptured after the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

The Turkish president was due to welcome the crown prince at the presidential palace in Ankara for talks on Wednesday afternoon. No public statements are expected.

The visit comes as part of a tour that included stops in Egypt and Jordan earlier this week.

It is expected to bring “a full normalization and a restoration of the pre-crisis period,” a senior Turkish official told Reuters. “A new era will begin.”

Ties between Ankara and Riyadh took a turn for the worse after a Saudi hit squad killed and dismembered Khashoggi in October 2018.

Erdogan at the time blamed it on the “highest levels” of the Saudi government. MBS has denied any involvement in the murder.

However, Ankara halted its murder trial in April, after a months-long drive to mend relations. The rapprochement was marked by Ankara’s approval of a request to transfer the trial to Riyadh.

Human rights groups condemned the move, saying Saudi Arabia could not be expected to hold a fair trial.

MBS has been leveraging Saudi Arabia’s vast wealth and oil production capacity to soften criticism of the country’s human rights record. In turn, Erdogan is seeking financial support that could help relieve Turkey’s beleaguered economy ahead of tight elections for the presidency, expected in 2023.

Turkish officials said agreements on energy, economy and security would be signed during the visit, while a plan was also in the works for Saudi funds to enter capital markets in Turkey.

However, negotiations on a possible currency swap line that could help restore Turkey’s diminished foreign reserves were not moving “as fast as desired” and would be discussed privately between the two leaders.

Turkey’s economy is badly strained by a slumping lira and inflation soaring beyond 70 percent. Saudi funds and foreign currency could help Erdogan shore up support ahead of elections, analysts say.

The leaders will also discuss the possible sale of Turkish armed drones to Riyadh, Turkish officials told Reuters.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi received MBS at the airport on Monday evening, on the first leg of a Middle East tour that comes ahead of United States President Joe Biden’s trip to the region next month.

The Saudi leader, who is a steady financial backer of the Egyptian government, discussed “regional and wider international political affairs”, according to el-Sisi’s spokesman Bassam Radi.

MBS then departed to Jordan for talks with its monarch, King Abdullah II, also a close ally of Saudi Arabia.

Business leaders and officials hoped the visit would unblock at least $3bn of investment projects that Saudi Arabia committed to in recent years, but that never materialized.

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Finnish President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply to join NATO, while Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats announced an official policy change that would pave the way for their country to apply within days.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said she will go to parliament on Monday to assure support for an application, which NATO allies expect to be made jointly with Finland.

Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson holds a news conference following a 
meeting at the ruling Social Democrats' headquarters on the party's decision on 
NATO membership, in Stockholm, Sweden, May 15, 2022. TT News Agency/Fredrik 
Persson via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. 
SWEDEN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SWEDEN.

“Today the Swedish Social Democratic Party took a historic decision to say yes to apply for a membership in the NATO defense alliance,” tweeted Sweden’s foreign minister, Ann Linde. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has deteriorated the security situation for Sweden and Europe as a whole.”

The country’s defense minister, Peter Hultqvist, warned that Sweden would be in a perilous situation if it was the only country around the Baltic that remained outside NATO. “We would be left behind,” he said.

Turkey, which had surprised its allies in recent days by saying it had reservations about Finnish and Swedish membership, laid out its demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers in Berlin. Ankara said it wanted the Nordic countries to halt support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and lift bans on some sales of arms to Turkey.

“I’m confident that we will be able to address the concerns that Turkey has expressed in a way that doesn’t delay the membership,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to go into details of closed-door conversations in Berlin but echoed Stoltenberg’s position.

“I’m very confident that we will reach consensus on that,” Blinken told reporters, adding that NATO was “a place for dialogue”.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said talks with Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin had been helpful. The two countries had made suggestions to respond to Ankara’s concerns, which Turkey would consider, while he had provided them proof terrorists were present on their territory, he said.

He singled out Sweden in particular, saying the Kurdish militant group the PKK, banned as terrorists by the United States and EU, had held meetings in Stockholm over the weekend.

Nevertheless, he said Turkey did not oppose the alliance’s policy of being open to all European countries who wish to apply.

Any decision on NATO enlargement requires approval by all 30 allies and their parliaments. Ankara, a NATO member for 70 years, will be under immense pressure to yield, NATO diplomats said because the alliance considers that the accession of Finland and Sweden would hugely strengthen it in the Baltic Sea.

‘CALM AND COOL’

Sweden and Finland were both neutral throughout the Cold War, and their decision to join NATO would be one of the biggest changes to Europe’s security architecture for decades, reflecting a sweeping shift in public opinion in the Nordic region since Russia invaded its neighbor Ukraine in February.

The announcement of backing for membership from Sweden’s Social Democrats paves the way for Prime Minister Andersson to launch a formal application within days.

Once vetted by NATO allies – and if Turkish objections are addressed – approval could come in just a matter of weeks, although ratification by allied parliaments could take up to a year, diplomats and officials have said.

Moscow has responded to the prospect of the Nordic states joining NATO by threatening retaliation, including unspecified “military-technical measures”.

Finland’s Niinisto, who spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, said their conversation was measured and did not contain any threats.

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Finland's President Sauli Niinisto 
arrive to attend a joint news conference on Finland's security policy decisions 
at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, May 15, 2022. 
Heikki Saukkomaa/ Lehtikuva/via REUTERS

“He confirmed that he thinks it’s a mistake. We are not threatening you. Altogether, the discussion was very, could I say, calm and cool,” Niinisto said in an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union.”

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Turkey’s unlimited construction of dams, along with other internal and external factors have caused severe drought and increasing dust storms impacting 25 provinces in Iran.

The post Turkish Ilisu dam’s impact on growing dust storms in Iran appeared first on News Agency nabakhabar.