Ukraine changed its military leadership and announced a change of tactics in the past week, as a vote in the US Senate brought renewed hope of US aid for the embattled country.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskii as commander-in-chief of the armed forces on February 8. Zelenskyy reportedly asked the outgoing Valery Zaluzhny to “continue to be part of the team”, without specifying what that meant.

“We stood against a vile and powerful enemy. Endured together,” wrote Zaluzhny, an immensely popular general who stopped Russia’s invasion in February 2022 and ordered a counterattack in August that year, which claimed more than 1,500sq km (580sq miles)

Since then, Ukrainian forces have become bogged down in positional warfare. A counteroffensive last summer failed to achieve its goal of cutting the Russian front in two.

“The tasks of 2022 are different from the tasks of 2024,” Zaluzhny wrote.

In his first meeting with Rustem Umyerov, the defence minister, the following day Syrskii said drones and electronic warfare would play a greater role – something Zaluzhny had also said shortly before his dismissal.

Ukraine has set a goal of building a million small drones – essentially flying bombs – this year.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyal said the government’s primary goal was to develop high-tech defence industries during a budget meeting on Tuesday, with $1bn going to drones alone.

“We are talking about the developments of the Defence Tech cluster, scaling up the production of drones of various categories, electronic warfare,” Shmyal said.

Mykhailo Fedorov, minister for digital transformation, told Reuters the number and range of Ukraine’s domestically built drones were dramatically increasing.

“In December alone, drone deliveries were 50 times higher than in the entire 2022,” he said.

Ukraine’s defence ministry launched a web form for Ukrainians to become involved in a community of innovators to “help solve the most difficult challenges at the front”, and is seeking to build a 10:1 technological advantage over Russia.

This strategy has been showing results.

Two long-range drones struck Russian oil refineries in Ilsky and Afipsky in Krasnodar Krai on Friday. Geolocated footage showed smoke rising from the refineries.

Ukrainian naval drones sank the Russian Landing ship Caesar Kunikov off the southern tip of the Crimean Peninsula on Wednesday. Ukrainian military intelligence’s Group 13 used Magura-V surface drones in the attack.

It was the fifth Russian landing ship in the Black Sea Ukraine sank or disabled. Nocturnal video shot by the drones showed the Caesar Kunikov being struck and capsizing to port.

A week earlier, Ukraine’s military intelligence used six Magura drones to sink the Ivanovets, a missile corvette.

Bringing greater efficiency to logistics, to keep front lines better supplied, and restoring Ukraine’s units with rest, new troops and training, was also a priority, Syrskii said.

Ukraine has almost a million troops under arms.

Syrskii also sought to overcome his image as “the butcher”, earned when he ordered a stout defence of the eastern town of Bakhmut that was costly in lives.

“Of course, we need to improve tactics. For us, the main task and value is the life of our soldier,” he told Germany’s ZDF television. “I would rather leave, perhaps some position, but I will not allow the death of the entire personnel,” Syrksyii said.

He emphasised self-reliance, saying “We, first of all, have to rely on our own strength. Not only on partners.”

As these words aired, the US Senate passed a bipartisan national security bill approving $60.6bn in financial and military aid to Ukraine by a vote of 70 to 29. The bill also contained $35bn in aid for Israel and Taiwan.

The bill must also pass the House of Representatives, but House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican ally of presidential hopeful Donald Trump, has said he will not consider aid to Ukraine, even though 84 percent of the appropriations would go to US defence manufacturers.

“There is no question that if the Senate bill was put on the floor in the House of Representatives, it would pass,” US President Joe Biden said. “So, I call on the speaker to let the full House speak its mind and not allow a minority of the most extreme voices in the House to block this bill even from being voted on.”

Trump has campaigned on cutting US defence costs in Europe, including the cost of defending NATO allies who, he believes, should spend more on defence.

“One of the presidents of a big [NATO] country stood up, said, if we don’t pay and we’re attacked by Russia, will you protect us?,” he told students at Coastal Carolina University on Saturday. “No, I will not protect you, in fact, I would encourage [the Russians] to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay,” he said to cheers.

Biden responded, saying, Trump “gave an invitation” to Russian President Vladimir Putin to invade the US’s NATO allies.

“When he looks at NATO, he doesn’t see the alliance that protects America and the world. He sees a protection racket,” said the president.

Trump peppered his speech with inaccuracies. He put the bill of US aid to Ukraine thus far at $200bn, and Europe’s contribution at $25bn.

In fact, the US has contributed $113bn in financial and military aid, and Europe 88.3 billion euros ($95bn), but Europe has approved a further 39.5 billion euros ($42.5bn) in financial and military aid for this year.

Trump’s influence over House Republicans means there are no US appropriations for Ukraine so far this year.

The Financial Times reported that Ukraine is already facing artillery shortages. The New York Times reported that Ukraine’s air defence missiles will run out by March unless replenished.

Russian forces, meanwhile, continued to rage against Ukrainian defenders in the east, launching as many as 100 assaults a day.

Ukraine’s armed forces estimated they were killing or wounding about 1,000 enemy troops across the front each day – a figure that could not be verified.

Tavria group commander Brig-Gen Oleksandr Tarnavskyi said Russia’s aim was to capture Avdiivka.

“The enemy is increasingly adding armoured groups to assault infantry groups,” he said.

Syrskii made his first trip as commander-in-chief to the eastern front, accompanied by Umyerov. He said troops faced “extremely difficult conditions”.

Umerov said drones and electronic warfare reinforcements were on their way.

“Avdiivka, Kupiansk, Lyman are extremely important areas on which all our attention is concentrated,” said Umerov.

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“I absolutely guarantee it,” Biden told a press conference when pressed by a Finnish reporter about the U.S. commitment to NATO given the political instability in the United States. Biden’s predecessor, Republican former President Donald Trump, threatened to take the United States out of the alliance.

“No one can guarantee the future, but this is the best bet anyone could make,” Biden said. Biden, a Democrat, is running for re-election in 2024 and Trump is the front-runner for Republicans.

Concern lingers in Europe about the reliability of U.S. pledges and global alliances, years after Trump’s norm-busting presidency ended. Trump clashed with NATO leaders over funding the alliance and threatened to reduce the number of U.S. troops in Germany.

Biden said there was overwhelming support for NATO from the American people, from Congress and from both Democrats and Republicans, “notwithstanding the fact there are some extreme elements of one party,” referring to Republicans.

“I’m saying as sure as anything could possibly be said about American foreign policy, we will stay connected to NATO,” Biden continued, showing a flash of irritation.

Biden’s visit comes almost exactly five years after Trump struck a conciliatory tone with Russian President Vladimir Putin at talks in Helsinki.

Biden was in the city to participate in a summit with the leaders of Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland and Norway. He came directly from this week’s NATO summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania, where he said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had only made the alliance stronger.

Biden said NATO had officially elevated its relationship with Ukraine and created a pathway for its membership “as it continues to make progress on the necessary democratic and security reforms required of every NATO member.”

Ukraine could not join the alliance in the middle of a war, he said.

“It’s not about whether they should or shouldn’t join, it’s about when they can join. And they will join NATO,” he said of Ukraine.

Biden said Putin had “already lost the war,” as there was no possibility of Russia winning.

“NEW ERA”

Finland’s decision to join NATO broke with seven decades of military non-alignment and roughly doubled the length of the border NATO shares with Russia.

The country repelled an attempted Soviet invasion during World War Two but lost territory. It maintained accommodating relations with Russia until President Vladimir Putin’s Ukraine invasion in February 2022.

Ahead of his bilateral meeting with Finnish President Sauli Niinisto, Biden hailed Finland as an “incredible asset” to the NATO military alliance.

Niinisto said Finland’s NATO membership heralded “a new era in our security”, and applauded Biden for creating unity at the Vilnius summit, which focused on supporting Ukraine.

“You will be one of those who wrote it to history,” he said to Biden about Finland joining the alliance.

Niinisto also said Finland was open to hosting a NATO base on its territory.

“We are discussing the defense cooperation agreement and it has a lot of elements. They are still open. But we are open to negotiations and I know that our counterparties are also very open.”

Biden and the Nordic leaders said in a statement following the talks that they would continue to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.

Biden also welcomed Sweden’s prospective entry to NATO. Sweden had applied to join NATO alongside Finland, but its bid was held up by Turkey, which says Sweden is doing too little against people Ankara sees as terrorists. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan dropped objections to its application this week.

Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson thanked Biden for his support in the country’s push to join NATO.

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“It is our natural right to expect our allies and other friendly countries to take similar steps regarding Türkiye’s security concerns, just as we take the security concerns of other NATO member countries and other non-NATO friendly and allied countries seriously, and immediately act relentlessly against the threats they face,” Ibrahim Kalin told reporters at the NATO headquarters in Brussels on Thursday.

Kalin’s remarks came after a trilateral mechanism meeting between Türkiye, Finland, and Sweden to discuss developments about the implementation of the commitments made in the June 2022 trilateral memorandum at the NATO Madrid Summit.

He said Thursday’s meeting was held in a “positive” atmosphere.

Some steps of Finland and Sweden in some areas are “satisfactory,” which Türkiye welcomes, Kalin said, adding: “Of course, the process is not finished yet.

“We also expressed our expectation that the necessary legal, judicial, administrative and intelligence steps should be taken, especially in order to prevent terrorist financing, recruitment, propaganda of terrorism, and incitement to violence.”

Trilateral agreement

Last June, Türkiye and the two Nordic countries signed a memorandum at the NATO summit in Madrid to address Ankara’s legitimate security concerns, paving the way for their eventual membership in the alliance.

The memorandum addresses Türkiye’s concerns, including arms exports and the fight against terrorism.

Only Hungary and Türkiye have not yet ratified Sweden’s and Finland’s requests for inclusion in NATO.

According to Swedish media reports, Sweden’s new anti-terror legislation will target the financing, aiding, and propagation of terror groups. Traveling abroad to join or assist a terror group will also be penalized if the law goes into effect.

Ankara has been demanding Stockholm take concrete actions to combat terror groups PKK and Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), the group behind the 2016 defeated coup attempt in Türkiye.

Sweden then passed an anti-terror law last November, hoping that Ankara would approve Stockholm’s bid to join NATO. Türkiye says the adopted laws were not sufficient enough, and nothing much had been done to stop the activities of the terror groups.

The PKK is listed as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the EU and the US, and is responsible for the deaths of 40,000 people, including women, children and infants.

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“We will not say yes to (Sweden’s) entry into NATO as long as you allow our holy book, the Quran, to be burned, torn apart, and to be done with (the approval of) your security personnel,” Erdogan said, referring to the recent burning of a Quran in Stockholm.

“We closely follow developments regarding NATO’s enlargement process. Our view on Finland is positive, but not on Sweden,” he said, signalling a willingness to support Finland’s NATO bid separately from Sweden’s.

His remarks came after Danish-Swedish paedophile Rasmus Paludan last week burned copies of the Quran on two separate occasions, first outside the Turkish Embassy in Stockholm and then later in front of a mosque in Denmark.

Paludan also said he would burn the Muslim holy book every Friday until Sweden is admitted to the NATO alliance.

Sweden and Finland formally applied to join NATO last May, a decision spurred by Russia’s military action against Ukraine, which started on February 24, 2022.

But Türkiye – a NATO member for more than 70 years – voiced objections, accusing the two countries of tolerating and even supporting terrorist groups. Under a memorandum signed last June between Türkiye, Sweden, and Finland, the two Nordic countries, pledged to take steps against terrorists in order to gain membership in the NATO alliance.

In the agreement, Sweden and Finland agreed not to provide support to terrorist groups such as the PKK and its offshoots, and the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO), and to extradite terror suspects to Türkiye, among other steps.

Unanimous agreement from all NATO members, including Türkiye, is needed for any new members to be admitted to the alliance.

Earlier on Wednesday, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said Ankara has fewer problems with Finland becoming a NATO member than with its neighbour Sweden. He stressed, however, that it was up to the military alliance to decide whether to accept one country only or the Nordic duo together – something that both countries are committed to.

Should NATO decide to deal with the membership processes of the Nordic neighbours separately, “(Türkiye) will then of course reconsider (ratifying) Finland’s membership separately and more favourably, I can say,” Cavusoglu said during a joint news conference with his Estonian colleague in Tallinn. He did not give a timeframe.

Erdogan also repeated that Türkiye’s view on Finland’s membership was “positive.”

“But it is not positive about Sweden, that should be known,” Erdogan said.

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“Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein received today, Wednesday, NATO Mission Iraq( NMI) commander, General Giovanni M. Iannucci, at the ministry’s headquarters, where the minister congratulated him on his assumption of office,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated in a statement received by the Iraqi News Agency (INA).

“During the meeting, they reviewed the tasks carried out by the NMI, represented by training the Iraqi security forces and providing military advice, as well as discussing ways to facilitate the mission’s tasks, and the possibility of expanding its tasks to include training the Iraqi police forces, “The statement added.

Iannucci expressed, according to the statement, his thanks to the Minister and the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs for their role in facilitating the NMI tasks, and his happiness with his new work tasks in Iraq, stressing the importance of Iraq’s security and stability for the region and for NATO, stressing NATO aspiration to consolidate relations with Iraq in the next stage at all levels, and not be limited to it at the military and security level.”

Iannucci pointed out the importance of working together to fight terrorism and the NMI communication with the various Iraqi authorities in order to accomplish its tasks as required.

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“If they do not comply, we will not accept them into NATO,” Mevlut Cavusoglu said during a live interview with Turkish broadcaster NTV on Monday.

Sweden and Finland shunned neutrality and applied to join NATO in May, a decision spurred by Russia’s offensive in Ukraine.

But Türkiye, a longstanding member of the alliance, voiced objections to the membership bids, criticising the countries for tolerating and even supporting terrorist groups.

Türkiye, Sweden and Finland signed the agreement after trilateral talks that took place ahead of the NATO summit in Madrid last week.

The agreement allows the two Nordic countries to become NATO members, but conditions them to take steps on Türkiye’s terrorism concerns and lift an arms embargo on Ankara.

Following the trilateral deal, NATO formally invited Sweden and Finland to join the 30-member military alliance.

Ties with US, Israel

In his interview, Cavusoglu also addressed ties between Türkiye and the US.

Relations are “relatively positive” and negotiations on the purchase of new F-16s have been successful, he said.

The foreign minister added that if a threat emerges against Türkiye in Syria, the country will take matters into its own hands.

Cavusoglu also hailed the normalization process between Ankara and Tel Aviv, saying the government change in Israel will not affect improving relations.

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At a joint news conference in Washington, DC on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the situation on the battlefield will affect how future negotiations will unfold.

“Wars are unpredictable,” Stoltenberg told reporters. “We were able to predict the invasion, but how this war will evolve, it’s very hard to predict. What we do know is that almost all wars end at some stage at the negotiating table.”

He added that NATO is supporting Ukraine’s right to self-defense while trusting the leadership in Kyiv to make its own judgment on talks with Moscow.

Blinken echoed Stoltenberg’s remarks.

“What we’re working to do … is to make sure that the Ukrainians have in hand what they need to defend against this aggression, to repel it and push it back,” he said. “And as well, and as a result, to make sure that they have the strongest possible hand at any negotiating table that emerges.”

Blinken also said it is difficult to speculate on the trajectory of the conflict or when it will end.

“We can’t say when, we can’t say exactly how,” he said. “What we can say is what we will do to make sure that Ukraine has the means to defend itself and has the strongest possible hand at every step along the way.”

Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine on February 24 after a months-long standoff that saw Moscow amass troops near the Ukrainian borders as Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded an end to NATO expansion into former Soviet republics.

After its failure to capture the capital, Kyiv, Moscow has scaled back its war objectives, shifting its war efforts to the eastern Donbas region and the southern parts of Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the US and its allies have continued to provide Ukraine with military equipment to fight off the invasion. Last month, the US Congress approved an additional $40bn in military and humanitarian assistance. President Joe Biden announced a new $700m US security assistance package to Ukraine on Wednesday utilizing those funds.

The package provides the Ukrainians “with new capabilities and advanced weaponry”, Biden said in a statement, including medium-range rocket systems known as HIMARS.

US officials have said they are providing military aid to Ukraine to cope with the changing needs of the war. Blinken spotlighted that policy on Wednesday.

“We have evaluated what we believe Ukraine needs to … defend itself effectively,” he said. “And of course, that’s changed through the course of this aggression. What they needed to deal with threats to Kyiv is very different from what they need to deal with what’s now happening in southern and eastern Ukraine.”

The meeting between Blinken and Stoltenberg comes as Finland and Sweden push to join NATO after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The two Nordic countries’ bids for NATO accession have faced Turkish opposition that could prevent them from joining the alliance, as new allies must be approved by all 30 existing members.

Turkey has accused the European countries of providing a safe haven for “terrorists”, referring to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Poland and Sweden had also restricted arms sales to Ankara in 2019 after a Turkish military operation against Kurdish forces in northern Syria.

Ankara has said it needs to see “concrete steps” from Finland and Sweden to lift its opposition to their NATO membership.

On Wednesday, Stoltenberg said he is in “close contact” with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as well as the leaders of Finland and Sweden to address Ankara’s concerns.

“I will convene senior officials from all three countries in Brussels in the coming days,” he said.

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The Turkish leader reiterated Ankara’s security concerns amid Helsinki and Stockholm’s NATO bids, saying the Nordic countries are hosting members of the terror groups, such as YPG/ PKK and the Fetullah Terrorist Organization (FETO).

“We told them, we said that NATO is a security organization, we cannot accept the existence of terrorist organizations in such an organization,” Erdogan told a meeting with a group of young people in the capital Ankara on the occasion of the Commemoration of Ataturk, Youth and Sports Day.

“Especially Sweden is a real guesthouse for terror,” he said, adding that Stockholm also imposed an arms embargo on Turkiye.

Turkiye, a longstanding NATO member, has voiced objections to Finland and Sweden’s membership bids, criticizing the countries for tolerating and even supporting terror groups, including the YPG/PKK.

Over the last five years, both Helsinki and Stockholm have failed to agree to Ankara’s requests for the extradition of dozens of terrorists, including members of the PKK and FETO, the group behind the 2016 defeated coup in Turkiye.

Senior representatives of Finland and Sweden are set to visit Turkiye in the coming days to hold official talks in Ankara to discuss their accession processes.​​​​​​​

Russia-Ukraine war

Asked about the Russia-Ukraine war, Erdogan said Turkiye will “continue to pursue a balanced policy”.

“And I have no thought of cutting ties with (Russian President Vladimir) Putin or (Ukrainian President Volodymyr) Zelenskyy,” he said.

Erdogan also said the phone diplomacy with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders will continue.

Since the war began on Feb. 24, Turkiye has hosted the highest-profile meetings between Russian and Ukrainian officials this March in the resort city of Antalya and in Istanbul.

Russia’s war on Ukraine has left thousands dead or wounded, and forced more than 6.3 million people to flee abroad.

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Finnish President Sauli Niinisto confirmed on Sunday that his country would apply to join NATO, while Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats announced an official policy change that would pave the way for their country to apply within days.

Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said she will go to parliament on Monday to assure support for an application, which NATO allies expect to be made jointly with Finland.

Sweden's Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson holds a news conference following a 
meeting at the ruling Social Democrats' headquarters on the party's decision on 
NATO membership, in Stockholm, Sweden, May 15, 2022. TT News Agency/Fredrik 
Persson via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS - THIS IMAGE WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. 
SWEDEN OUT. NO COMMERCIAL OR EDITORIAL SALES IN SWEDEN.

“Today the Swedish Social Democratic Party took a historic decision to say yes to apply for a membership in the NATO defense alliance,” tweeted Sweden’s foreign minister, Ann Linde. “The Russian invasion of Ukraine has deteriorated the security situation for Sweden and Europe as a whole.”

The country’s defense minister, Peter Hultqvist, warned that Sweden would be in a perilous situation if it was the only country around the Baltic that remained outside NATO. “We would be left behind,” he said.

Turkey, which had surprised its allies in recent days by saying it had reservations about Finnish and Swedish membership, laid out its demands on Sunday on the sidelines of a meeting of foreign ministers in Berlin. Ankara said it wanted the Nordic countries to halt support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, and lift bans on some sales of arms to Turkey.

“I’m confident that we will be able to address the concerns that Turkey has expressed in a way that doesn’t delay the membership,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken declined to go into details of closed-door conversations in Berlin but echoed Stoltenberg’s position.

“I’m very confident that we will reach consensus on that,” Blinken told reporters, adding that NATO was “a place for dialogue”.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said talks with Swedish and Finnish counterparts in Berlin had been helpful. The two countries had made suggestions to respond to Ankara’s concerns, which Turkey would consider, while he had provided them proof terrorists were present on their territory, he said.

He singled out Sweden in particular, saying the Kurdish militant group the PKK, banned as terrorists by the United States and EU, had held meetings in Stockholm over the weekend.

Nevertheless, he said Turkey did not oppose the alliance’s policy of being open to all European countries who wish to apply.

Any decision on NATO enlargement requires approval by all 30 allies and their parliaments. Ankara, a NATO member for 70 years, will be under immense pressure to yield, NATO diplomats said because the alliance considers that the accession of Finland and Sweden would hugely strengthen it in the Baltic Sea.

‘CALM AND COOL’

Sweden and Finland were both neutral throughout the Cold War, and their decision to join NATO would be one of the biggest changes to Europe’s security architecture for decades, reflecting a sweeping shift in public opinion in the Nordic region since Russia invaded its neighbor Ukraine in February.

The announcement of backing for membership from Sweden’s Social Democrats paves the way for Prime Minister Andersson to launch a formal application within days.

Once vetted by NATO allies – and if Turkish objections are addressed – approval could come in just a matter of weeks, although ratification by allied parliaments could take up to a year, diplomats and officials have said.

Moscow has responded to the prospect of the Nordic states joining NATO by threatening retaliation, including unspecified “military-technical measures”.

Finland’s Niinisto, who spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday, said their conversation was measured and did not contain any threats.

Finland's Prime Minister Sanna Marin and Finland's President Sauli Niinisto 
arrive to attend a joint news conference on Finland's security policy decisions 
at the Presidential Palace in Helsinki, Finland, May 15, 2022. 
Heikki Saukkomaa/ Lehtikuva/via REUTERS

“He confirmed that he thinks it’s a mistake. We are not threatening you. Altogether, the discussion was very, could I say, calm and cool,” Niinisto said in an interview with CNN’s “State of the Union.”

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