Igor Kirillov, a senior general in charge of Russia’s nuclear defence forces, was killed on Tuesday in a bomb blast in Moscow. A source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), talking to Al Jazeera, has claimed responsibility for the bombing.

Here’s what you should know:

What do we know so far?

During the early hours of Tuesday, Kirillov was killed by a bomb hidden in an electric scooter outside an apartment building on Ryazansky Prospekt, Russia’s investigative committee said in a statement. The attack site was 7km (4 miles) southeast of the Kremlin.

The explosive device “had a capacity of some 300 grams in TNT equivalent”, Russia’s TASS news agency reported, quoting a law enforcement official.

A police officer stands guard near the explosion site in Moscow [Yuri Kochetkov/EPA-EFE]

Russian media reported that the bomb was remotely operated.

Pictures from the scene show a scooter with its handlebars blown off and damage to the entrance alongside the outside walls of the building.

Kirillov’s assistant was also killed.

“Two body bags could be seen on the street,” said Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapovalova, reporting near the site of the blast. “Judging by the shattered windows, the blast wave reached at least the fourth floor, with about 10 apartments reportedly damaged.”

Who was Kirillov?

Kirillov, who was 54 at the time of his death, had served as chief of the Troops of Radiological, Chemical and Biological Defence since April 2017.

Special forces in the Russian military, they operate under conditions of radioactive, chemical and biological contamination.

Kirillov was married with two sons.

The Russian general was under sanctions from several countries, including the United Kingdom and Canada, for his role in the war in Ukraine.

(Al Jazeera)

What has Russia said?

“Igor Kirillov, the head of the radiation, chemical and biological protection forces of the armed forces of the Russian Federation, and his assistant were killed,” said the Russian investigative committee.

Russia’s investigative committee announced that a criminal case has been opened.

Svetlana Petrenko, spokeswoman for the committee, said in a statement that Moscow is treating the bombing as a “terrorist” attack.

Maria Zakharova, foreign ministry spokeswoman, paid tribute to Kirillov. She said he worked “fearlessly” for “the motherland” to uncover the West’s chemical weapons-related crimes and other crimes.

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council, said, “Realising the inevitability of its military defeat, [Ukraine] launches cowardly and despicable strikes in peaceful cities.”

What has Ukraine said?

SBU sources have claimed responsibility for the killing with several news media outlets, but Ukraine has not officially commented.

A Ukrainian law enforcement official told Politico more on condition of anonymity.

“Kirillov was a war criminal and an absolutely legitimate target since he gave orders to use banned chemical weapons against the Ukrainian military. Such an inglorious end awaits all who kill Ukrainians. Retribution for war crimes is inevitable,” the unnamed official told Politico.

On Monday, the SBU accused Kirillov of using banned chemical weapons during Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine that began in February 2022.

In a statement on Monday, the SBU said Russia’s forces have used different types of banned chemical munitions against Ukraine more than 4,800 times. This included K-1 combat grenades.

Which other Russian officials have been killed during wartime?

Russia has accused Ukraine of orchestrating a string of high-profile wartime assassinations.

Ukraine usually denies a role in attacks within Russia or Crimea, but its officials often celebrate them in posts on social media.

In November, senior Russian naval officer Valery Trankovsky was killed in a car bombing in Crimea. In this case, a source in Ukraine’s security services told the French news agency AFP that Ukraine was behind the assault.

In August 2022, Darya Dugina, the daughter of Russian ultranationalist Alexander Dugin, was killed in a car bombing. Ukraine denied any role in her killing.

In April 2023, the pro-war Russian blogger Vladlen Tatarsky was killed in a bombing at a Saint Petersburg cafe. Ukraine did not claim responsibility, instead blaming domestic infighting.

In July 2023, submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitsky, who was accused of war crimes by Ukraine, was shot dead in a Krasnodar park. Again, Kyiv denied a role.

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A court in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region has ruled to hand over the assets of pasta manufacturer Makfa Group to the Russian state, the business news website RBC reported Wednesday.

Makfa’s seizure is the latest in what has been described as the Kremlin’s creeping drive of forced nationalizations since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which saw scores of foreign companies leave the country in response.

Chelyabinsk’s Central District Court granted a request from the Russian Prosecutor General’s Office to seize the pasta maker on accusations that its owners had broken anti-corruption laws by running the business while holding political office.

Makfa’s main beneficiaries are the former Chelyabinsk regional Governor Mikhail Yurevich, who is a suspect in a bribery case, and former regional lawmaker Vadim Belousov, who was convicted on the same charges in 2022.

Yurevich and Belousov are believed to be living abroad while Makfa, which the business partners built together in the 1990s and 2000s, continues operating as one of Russia’s most recognized pasta brands. In 2023, Makfa Group reported a yearly revenue of 23.7 billion rubles ($257.26 million).

According to RBC, the defendants had sought unsuccessfully to avoid a closed-door hearing by transferring the case to an arbitration court. They had also offered to buy back the company and spend 1 billion rubles ($12 million) a year on Russia’s war in Ukraine as part of a settlement deal.

“Makfa completely disagrees with the decision and intends to appeal it in the near future,” the company’s lawyer Pavel Khlyustov told RBC, adding that he “sees grounds” to challenge the verdict with Russia’s Constitutional Court.

After Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of neighboring Ukraine, Russian authorities have sought to nationalize key assets in the country’s defense industry in a bid to command greater control over ramped-up military production. However, the sweep in asset seizures has increasingly targeted the civilian economy.

In March, the government took control of the country’s largest winemaker linked to an arrested billionaire whose business assets were confiscated earlier this year.

President Vladimir Putin has denied that Russia is witnessing concerted efforts to re-nationalize key parts of the economy.

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Soon after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron sought to help resolve the conflict diplomatically. During the war’s first summer, Macron said it was important that Moscow was not humiliated and that a European security order including Russia should be established.

But since last year, Macron has been drastically shifting towards what has been described as a hawkish foreign policy.

At a conference in Paris last month, the French president said a deployment of Western troops to fight Russia on the ground in Ukraine should not be ruled out, a suggestion that angered Russian President Vladimir Putin and was dismissed by Ukraine’s main backers.

While speaking in Prague on March 5, Macron declared that Europeans can’t be “cowards” when countering Moscow.

What explains Macron’s shifting posture?

Macron’s moves come as Ukraine faces serious problems on the battlefield and as United States military support is delayed.

While Ukraine’s main aim is to hold firm in the war, Kyiv’s side lacks manpower while fighting a country with a population three times its own.

Its ammunition shortages are another significant challenge and against the backdrop of an anti-climactic counteroffensive last year, Ukraine is struggling to size up its army.

There are concerns that these conditions will embolden Moscow to act more confidently, not only in Ukraine, but also possibly in Moldova, the South Caucasus, and the Sahel.

Meanwhile, Paris is increasingly concerned about Russia’s hybrid warfare, which has reportedly intensified against France and other European Union members.

“France has been a particular target of hybrid attacks – [for example] cyber, disinformation – recently. This probably helped Macron come to terms with the reality of a more aggressive Russia,” said Mathieu Droin, a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia programme at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and former official at the French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs.

Meanwhile, Macron wants to advance his vision for Europe’s strategic autonomy from Washington and demonstrate Europe’s ability to support Kyiv without counting on the US – especially given the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency.

“Undoubtedly, concerns about a second Trump presidency have woken Europeans up to the fact that they need to do more for their own defence,” said Artin DerSimonian, a research fellow in the Eurasia programme at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. “Such a realisation across the continent plays into Macron’s push for strategic autonomy.”

Growing European autonomy from Washington

Some of Trump’s rhetoric on the campaign trail last month has worried European policymakers.

At an event in South Carolina, he told his audience that he would encourage the Russians to “do whatever the hell they want” to any NATO member which fails to meet spending guidelines.

Macron has consistently warned France’s European partners that the US position on Ukraine has shifted, and that President Joe Biden’s administration “might only be a parenthesis, not a back to normal, in US politics”, said Droin.

“Of course, we welcome [the Americans] any time. We know how dependent we are on [Washington’s] security guarantee. But the fact is we can’t count on it indefinitely any more. This is what many Europeans are realising.

“This is definitely always in the back of [Macron’s] mind.”

(Al Jazeera)

While Macron’s talk of sending Western military forces to Ukraine was largely rejected by most of France’s NATO allies, the Baltic countries – Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania – rejoiced, as well as some others in closer geographic proximity to Russia.

Throughout the Russia-Ukraine war, and for many years before it, some Eastern and Central European countries believe that officials in NATO’s Western European members, including France, have been too eager to appease the Kremlin and failed to wake up to an existential threat.

“Macron’s hardened stance – at least rhetorically – on Ukraine may be a further attempt to ameliorate concerns in the east of the continent,” DerSimonian told Al Jazeera. “Whether or not Macron follows through with his rhetoric, he has certainly won favour in the eastern part of the continent, which may likely prove useful in future French strategic plans.”

It “certainly helped in closing ranks”, said Droin.

Excluding exceptions such as Hungary and Slovakia, countries in Eastern and Central Europe are the “most vocal and supportive of Ukraine” and have “warmly welcomed” Macron’s shift, Droin added.

Macron’s shift seemed to start at the end of May last year when he was speaking at a security conference hosted by GLOBSEC, a Bratislava-based think tank.

In a speech, he acknowledged that Paris had failed to sufficiently listen to the concerns of NATO members near Russia and Ukraine.

“He certainly realised that if he wants to build a stronger Europe and a more strategically autonomous Europe, as he usually says, he needs these countries and this is certainly a way to reconcile the two hemispheres of Europe,” said Droin.

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Russia observed a national day of mourning on Sunday after a massacre in a Moscow concert hall killed 137 people, the deadliest attack in Europe to have been claimed by the Islamic State jihadist group.

President Vladimir Putin has vowed to punish those behind the “barbaric terrorist attack,” saying four gunmen trying to flee to Ukraine had been arrested.

Kyiv has strongly denied any connection to the attack, with President Volodymyr Zelensky accusing Putin of trying to shift the blame.

“The whole country is in mourning with those who lost their loved ones in this inhumane tragedy,” public television channel Russia 24 said on Sunday morning.

Putin, in his only public remarks on the attack, made no reference to IS’s claims of responsibility.

At least 137 people, including three children, were killed when camouflaged gunmen stormed the Crocus City Hall, in Moscow’s northern suburb of Krasnogorsk, and then set fire to the building on Friday evening.

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But not all of Putin’s pre-election news coverage went as planned.

Ukraine scored drone attacks against Moscow and Russian oil facilities, and anti-Kremlin fighters made their presence felt on Russian soil.

Putin’s nuclear threat on Wednesday – the second in as many weeks – was measured. In a pre-recorded television interview he said Russia’s nuclear forces were ready “from a military-technical point of view” and touted them as the most advanced in the world.

(Al Jazeera)

His comments, made six days after Sweden officially joined NATO as its 32nd member, were mild compared with a warning two weeks ago after French President Emmanuel Macron left open the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine.

“They must realize that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory. All this really threatens a conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they get that?” Putin said on February 29.

Putin is running for a third consecutive six-year term.

He has passed constitutional amendments suspending a ban on more than two consecutive terms for himself personally. It allows him to rule until 2036 and has led both Russian and Western critics to label his continuing to hold office as illicit.

In October, the Council of Europe described his presidency as a “de facto dictatorship” and urged its member states to “recognize Putin as illegitimate”.

Russian crawl

Russian forces continued to make marginal advances on the eastern front for a fourth straight week after the fall of Avdiivka on February 17, but the pace of these advances has slowed considerably, suggesting Ukraine has managed to absorb Russian momentum.

On Friday, geolocated footage showed they entered the village of Tonenke and advanced towards Berdychi, both west of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region. Russian forces had already been on the edges of both settlements a week earlier.

Ukraine’s Tavria Group of forces, which is fighting in the area, said this front had stabilised.

“The advance has actually stopped. The Russian military is making small movements in this direction,” spokesperson Dmytro Lykhovyi said.

There were other minor Russian advances in Donetsk. Russian forces have been trying to roll back Ukrainian gains west of Bakhmut, and on Sunday, geolocated footage showed they had entered the village of Ivanivske.

Russian forces captured the village of Shevchenko, southeast of the city of Donetsk, on March 10 and the following day advanced in several places along the front in the area.

Towards the northern end of the front, geolocated footage showed that Russian forces approached the village of Terny from the east and reached the outskirts of Synkivka, two settlements in Donetsk and Kharkiv, respectively.

On the whole, though, these advances were measured in hundreds of meters (hundreds of yards), and the overall shape of the front remained unchanged.

What seems to continue to be instrumental in Russia’s minor successes is the use of glide bombs. These are normally massive conventional inertial bombs carrying 675kg (nearly 1,500lb) of explosives, fitted with fins and tails to fly farther and strike with greater accuracy. The German tabloid Bild reported that Russia is now mass-producing the weapons.

Russian military reporters said Russia also produced an improved glide bomb design this year, including engines and satellite guidance systems that increased its range from 40-70km to 95km (25-45 miles to 60 miles).

These powered bombs enable Russian planes dropping them to fly farther away from the front, reducing their vulnerability to Ukrainian air defenses, which claimed 15 aircraft in February and early March.

Ukrainian leap

While holding the front more or less steady, Ukraine focused on striking deep inside Russia.

On Saturday, several explosions were recorded in Rostov, less than 100km (60 miles) from the Ukrainian border, with at least one geolocated to a Beriev plant repairing and refurbishing A-50 radar and reconnaissance planes.

Ukraine has targeted these planes, destroying two this year, because they spy on Ukrainian positions and give fighter-bombers their coordinates.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence claimed on Saturday that it had shot down all 47 drones over four border regions, including Rostov.

On Tuesday, Ukraine again sent a large salvo of drones – this time targeting energy infrastructure. Russia’s Defence Ministry said it shot down 58.

Ryazan Governor Pavel Malkov said one drone struck the Ryazan refinery, 180km (110 miles) southeast of Moscow and about 500km (310 miles) from the Ukrainian border, starting a fire.

Ukrainian news outlet Suspilne quoted Security Service sources as saying two further refineries had been targeted, in Rostov and St Petersburg, as well as two airfields. There was no evidence that those attacks had succeeded.

(Al Jazeera)

Ukraine’s military intelligence said pro-Ukrainian Russian forces had staged a border incursion on Tuesday, clashing with Russian forces in border villages in Belgorod and Kursk.

The Russian Volunteer Force and Freedom of Russia Legion are anti-Putin paramilitaries that first attacked Russia in March 2023. Russian sources first denied the incursion, then claimed to have repelled it.

Whether it succeeded in the past week, Ukraine has been following through on tactics that have succeeded in the past, striking oil refineries and sinking or disabling as much as half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

But in interviews with Western media, Ukrainian fighters on the front lines are raising the alarm about shortages of ammunition as United States military aid remains frozen in a Republican-controlled House of Representatives. The latest such warning came in Germany’s Der Spiegel news magazine on Tuesday when Ukrainian servicemen warned they could not hold out forever under current conditions.

Even Ukraine’s new commander-in-chief, Oleksandr Syrskii, warned on Wednesday that “there is a threat of enemy units advancing deep into our battle formations.”

“Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukraine’s European allies have been trying to make up for the US shortfall. Britain announced it would spend $160m buying 10,000 drones for Ukraine.

Czech officials said they had raised enough money from partners to buy 300,000 artillery shells from around the world for Ukraine.

(Al Jazeera)

The Czech Republic is leading an effort to locate 800,000 artillery shells outside Europe and deliver them to Ukraine. Germany, which refrains from sending its medium-range Taurus missile to Ukraine because Russia said it would consider it an escalation, was reportedly discussing a plan to send the missiles to Britain as replacements for Storm Shadow missiles Britain would send to Ukraine.

The administration of US President Joe Biden said it was sending $300m of urgently needed military aid cobbled together from savings in the US defense budget. But none of this makes up for the absence of $60.1bn in military aid the US was planning to send in 2024.

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The Financial Times reported last month that certain US officials had urged Ukraine to play defence in 2024 and conserve strength for a counteroffensive next year.

“Defensive operations do not necessarily present Ukraine with more opportunities to husband materiel and expand reserves,” wrote the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, in a scathing critique of that advice.

Talking to journalists on Sunday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy hinted that he would appease conservatives with a summit in Switzerland this spring to thrash out a peace proposal.

But he also said, “We believe that it is only right to get stronger on the battlefield … We do not want any negotiation formats or peace formulas to be imposed on us by countries that are not here today, not at war.”

If Ukraine is to fight for a better bargaining position, many experts feel offence is its only choice.

“We are headed towards a war of attrition, which plays into Russia’s hands,” Vienna-based geopolitical strategist Velina Tchakarova told Al Jazeera.

“Ukraine will launch a military offensive – it is clear,” said Tchakarova, who also predicted Russia’s 2022 invasion.

Ukraine has hinted as much.

“We are doing everything possible and impossible to make a breakthrough,” Rustem Umerov, defence minister, said in the past week.

“Plan 2024 is already there. We do not talk about it publicly. It is powerful, it is strong, it gives not only hope but also will give results in 2024,” he said.

Ukraine still aims to restore the borders Russia recognised in 1991, which means pushing Russian forces out of four partially occupied regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson – and also retaking Crimea.

A survey for the Munich Security Conference showed that at least three-quarters of Ukrainians still back all of these goals.

But how will it be done?

Changing tactics, constant strategy

Last year’s counteroffensive strategy was to capture Melitopol and reach the Sea of Azov.

From there, Ukrainian forces could cut off Russia from Crimea by firing on the Kerch bridge. Had it succeeded, the strategy would have delivered Crimea, Kherson and most of Zaporizhia, and saddled Russian President Vladimir Putin with enormous political pressure to end the war.

Tchakarova said the 2023 counteroffensive failed because it depended on weapons deliveries from allies.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, a think tank, measured that weapons commitments in August-October last year were 87 percent lower than during the same period in 2022, the first year of the war.

“This was the decisive factor that led to no significant breakthroughs on the front lines,” Tchakarova said.

This year, Ukraine plans to make as many of its own weapons as possible.

“We are expecting a lot more [help from allies] if we believe the announcements – F-16s, drones and ammunition,” said Tchakarova. “But I don’t expect any serious support,” underlining the wisdom of Ukraine’s new approach.

Ukraine’s tactics are also evolving.

Last June’s counteroffensive was based on mechanised manoeuvres and manpower, but its expenditure in weapons and lives proved unsustainable beyond September.

At about the same time, though, Ukraine launched a series of ranged attacks that proved more sustainable and, in some ways, more devastating to Russia.

In May it struck the Kremlin with drones and followed up with more attacks in the heart of Moscow.

That “produced an incredible sense of worry”, Jade McGlynn, a Russia expert at King’s College London’s War Studies department, told Al Jazeera.

“They were targeting that whole ministry of defence area or the area where the Kremlin elites live, so it was a signal to anyone in that circle that ‘even you are not safe’.”

Surface drones of Ukraine’s own manufacture and Storm Shadow missiles provided by Britain and France have since struck repeatedly in the waters around Crimea, sinking or rendering inoperable half of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. Aerial drones and missiles have destroyed Crimean air defences, aircraft and the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in Sevastopol.

More recently, drones have targeted oil and gas infrastructure in Russia itself, vital to its export revenue. Russian newspaper Kommersant said refineries had to reduce their output by four percent in January compared with January 2023, because of damage caused by Ukrainian drones.

Zelenskyy said this month that “our task this year is not only to bolster our sky shield and Ukraine’s long-range capabilities to the fullest extent possible, but also to inflict maximum systemic losses on Russia”.

That has been a constant in Ukraine’s strategy.

In September 2022, then-commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny said Russia’s ability to strike Ukraine with impunity was “the true centre of gravity of the enemy”, and sought long-range weapons to reciprocate the pain.

“It’s important that Ukrainians continue,” said McGlynn. “Unless [Russians] feel even a thousandth of what Ukraine feels, they’re not going to feel any responsibility to act against it.”

Ukraine is now levelling up this strategy.

It has said it will build 20,000 drones with a range of hundreds of kilometres, suggesting a devastating intended usage rate of 55 a day, and 1,000 drones with a range of more than 1,000km (621 miles) to strike deep inside Russia.

Zelenskyy on Sunday summarised this year’s strategic goals.

“We have to prove that we can deprive Russia of its air supremacy, its financing of aggression and its political power. This is a task for the year,” Zelenskyy told allies gathered in Paris.

Manpower and tactical concerns

Ukraine’s emphasis on remote warfare seems to go hand in hand with a more conservative use of manpower in 2024.

When ground forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyii replaced Valery Zaluzhny as commander-in-chief this year, there was concern about a return to costlier tactics.

“He is from this Soviet old school of thinking, which is highly artillery-driven and more prone to devote mass to the front, which generates a great deal of concern in Ukraine,” Cambridge University’s Rory Finnin, a Ukraine historian, told Al Jazeera.

Yet Syrskyii belied this assumption on February 17, when he withdrew his troops from the almost surrounded eastern city of Avdiivka. It was a reversal of his tactics in Bakhmut, where he had ordered them to fight a rearguard for every inch of territory.

“Social media showed Russia was caught off guard by the fact that Ukrainian forces pulled back,” said retired Colonel Seth Krummrich, now vice-president of Global Guardian, a security consultancy.

As part of its effort to conserve manpower, Ukraine plans to build a million short-range drones this year, which can deliver small bombs with great accuracy near the front lines, a goal experts have told Al Jazeera is feasible.

Such a rate of production would average about 20,000 bombs a day, and would likely overwhelm Russian volumes. On February 12, Ukraine reported downing 1,157 Russian short-range drones in a week.

Short-range drones might also be the key to equalising artillery power, a step Zelenskyy said was necessary before any new counteroffensive.

“We need to come to those moments when we had appropriate operations, counteroffensive actions, when we went [to a ratio of] 1 to 1.5-3. Then we will be able to push back the Russians,” he said at Sunday’s press conference.

Putin’s chickens

What would be the effect on Russia if Ukraine succeeded in its remote warfare strategy?

Russia has managed to avoid many dire predictions so far.

Despite a mutiny by the Wagner military company last year and numerous antiwar protests, Putin has not been toppled. The rouble did not collapse. Russia circumvented sanctions to sell oil and buy weapons.

However, some experts believe the effects are accumulating.

“I think this year will be the high watermark of Putin’s capacity to influence clearly what’s going on in Ukraine,” British historian Mark Galeotti told the Futucast podcast last month, predicting that “towards the end of this year … we’ll see some very, very large chickens coming home to roost.”

Those chickens include rising household debt, thinning public services and disillusionment with Putin, Galeotti believed: “The system is more and more vulnerable to the unexpected, and the unexpected could come tomorrow or in five years’ time.”

Focus on Crimea?

On Monday, Zelenskyy suggested he might focus directly on Crimea this year.

“We must fight for the full restoration of international law in relation to Crimea,” he said in a statement marking the 10th anniversary of Russia’s annexation of the peninsula.

Ukrainian military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov said last month that attacks on Crimea would intensify, and this month predicted, “the peninsula will be brought back”.

This, too, has been a strategic goal since 2022, because Russia maintains five airfields on the peninsula from which it has attacked Ukraine, and uses it to support troops in Zaporizhia and Kherson.

Even if it doesn’t recapture the Crimean peninsula this year, Ukraine can render it unusable as a Russian base of operations using drones and missiles.

Europe’s moment

With US aid stalled, Europe has an opportunity to play a bigger geopolitical role, career British diplomat and lecturer at Cambridge University’s Centre for Geopolitics Suzanne Raine told Al Jazeera.

“For many years now, America has been the first mover that has given us the confidence to do something, and that’s a ridiculous position for us all to be in, frankly,” Raine said.

“If the EU wants to be able to take itself seriously on anything, it needs to be able to galvanise conversations that lead to decisions and action.”

The EU has passed 12 sanctions packages and invited Ukraine to become a member with record speed, but these were low-hanging fruit, said Raine.

“Sanctions are easy and they don’t really work. Accession talks are easy as long as you don’t actually allow them to join,” she said.

Britain has so far been the only European country to upstage the US on new categories of weapons, offering Ukraine tanks in January 2023 followed by medium-range Storm Shadow missiles in May.

Germany has an equivalent Taurus missile it refuses to send Ukraine until the US approves ATACMS.

Raine said she is waiting for the continent to wake up.

“If not now, when?” she said.

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Amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war, Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol hinted at providing support other than humanitarian aid to Kyiv, prompting Russian President Vladimir Putin to issue a rare warning that implied devastating consequences for their bilateral ties.

In addition, the Korean government, which joined the international community’s financial sanctions against Russia in 2022, made a decision last month to tighten export controls on Russia, a move provoking Russian threats of retaliation.

“If and when our Korean partners would be ready to once again enhance or enlarge the scope of our cooperation, I think that goodwill will most certainly be reciprocated by Russia,” the ambassador said during an interview with The Korea Times at the Embassy of the Russian Federation in Seoul, Friday.

“Korea is one of the friendliest among so-called unfavorable nations. I do hope that the Republic of Korea would be among the first so-called unfavorable nations that become favorable.”

Zinoviev, a career diplomat who took office earlier this month, said that Korea is different from some Western powers which want Russia “defeated, humiliated or disintegrated,” which the ambassador said is not the goal of South Korea’s diplomacy and foreign policy.

“I do not think that that is kind of philosophy that is supported by our Korean partners,” he said.

On the contrary, the ambassador took Western countries to task for employing a deliberate strategy to accuse Russia of wrongdoings, which ultimately drove a wedge between Korea and Russia.

“One more goal would be to drag Korea further apart from Russia. By that kind of allegations and accusations, we already experience some turbulence in our bilateral relations,” he said.

“While I think in the best interest of Russia and Korea is to contain that damage to get our relations out of turbulent area, perhaps some other countries would like them to enter into not just the turbulence but into the thunderstorm.”

Direct export of arms to Ukraine

Against the backdrop of heightened global geopolitical tensions, the demand for weapons and ammunition has surged to unprecedented levels. The ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Hamas confrontation have fueled this spike.

As the conflict in Ukraine intensifies, the international focus is shifting toward Korea as the international community is urging the nation to contribute to the supply of much-needed ammunition to bolster Ukraine’s defense efforts.

Zinoviev expressed deep concerns over Korea supplying arms exports directly to Ukraine, warning of potentially severe consequences to bilateral relations.

“We have expressed many times to our Korean partners that it would be very detrimental for bilateral ties if the Republic of Korea starts direct arms exports to the Ukrainian regime, and we do not want to see the ammunition killing Russian soldiers,” Zinoviev said.

He highlighted the gravity of such a scenario, suggesting that it could “deal a heavy blow” to the future prospects of their relations.

The ambassador acknowledged that this position has been communicated to Korean officials through diplomatic channels and public statements.

“We’ve seen several official statements by the Korean side that it is not going to and is not planning to have direct arms exports of weapons toward Ukraine and we take this position seriously,” he said.

Zinoviev expressed hope that Korea would continue to uphold this commitment for the sake of their future relations. He stressed the importance of considering not only the current situation but also anticipating the post-conflict era in Ukraine.

“The conflict on the Ukrainian territory will end and I have no doubts that it will end by Russia achieving its goals that it has set for the special military operation which is demilitarization of the Ukraine and making sure that the Ukraine does not pose a threat towards Russia’s security,” the ambassador said.

Russia welcomes return of Korean companies

The ambassador expressed optimism about the potential for Korean companies to regain their foothold in the Russian market, highlighting the historical success of Korean businesses in Russia and the favorable attitudes Russian consumers had toward Korean products.

“Well, Korean companies had a very strong and big share in Russian markets and it used to be very much respected and loved by Russian consumers,” he said. “One of the names of an international company that came to the mind of a Russian consumer, if you just ask him on the street, would be Samsung.”

However, he acknowledged that the current situation has changed, with a decrease in the market share of Korean companies in Russia, revealing that only one out of 50 cars sold in Russia last year came from Korea while before the war 20 percent of cars were Korean-made.

Last month, Hyundai Motor, Korea’s leading carmaker, decided to sell its Russian manufacturing plant. The St. Petersburg facility, launched in 2010, halted operations in March 2022, citing disruptions in component supplies attributed to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Despite this decline, he underlined the absence of artificial restrictions or barriers imposed by Russia and added that Korean companies will be welcomed if they return at their convenience.

“I would like to stress that unlike Western or Japanese companies, none of Korean companies publicly declared that they are leaving the Russian market due to political reasons. No one slammed the door,” Zinoviev said.

The ambassador expressed hope that Korean companies would consider returning to the Russian market, which he described as lucrative with numerous opportunities. He assured that Russia is open and welcoming to their return, stating, “We do hope that Korean companies have in mind the idea of returning to Russia as soon as possible, and we will be welcoming that.”

Cultural exchanges

Zinoviev underscored the significance of cultural exchanges as a means of strengthening ties between Russia and Korea. As part of that, Moscow’s state-owned Bolshoi Ballet is scheduled to perform in Seoul in April.

“The meaning of this visit is to have our Korean friends enjoy first-class world culture through cultural exchanges,” he said.

“We do hope that our Korean friends will continue to enjoy the first-class world culture brought to them by Russian artists, as Korean artists are very welcomed in Russia as well.”

Zinoviev emphasized the resilience of people-to-people connections and cultural ties, noting their resilience amid the current global turbulence affecting other areas.

He cited this as an example of a solid foundation that could help both nations return to normalcy and elevate their bilateral ties to a higher level.

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Iranian President Ebrahim Raeisi’s recent visit to Moscow is considered a stepping stone for Tehran-Moscow strategic ties.

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The death of Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner paramilitary group, following a plane crash on Wednesday, has been confirmed by formal genetic analysis, Russia’s Investigative Committee said Sunday.

“Molecular-genetic examinations have been completed as part of the investigation into the plane crash in the Tver region,” Investigative Committee spokeswoman Svetlana Petrenko said.

“According to their results, the identities of all 10 victims were established, they correspond to the list stated in the flight list,” she added.

Among the other nine people listed onboard the Embraer private jet was Dmitry Utkin, a shadowy figure who managed Wagner’s operations and allegedly served in Russian military intelligence.

Speculation the Kremlin may have been involved in Wednesday’s crash has been rife, with the incident coming exactly two months after Wagner staged a mutiny against Moscow’s military leadership.

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