In a recent written interview with Kyodo News, Pistorius revealed that the upcoming joint exercise, set to take place in Japan, will be the first of its kind between the two countries’ ground forces. The development comes as Germany has bolstered ties with Indo-Pacific partners and emphasized its mission to “maintain the rules-based international order.”

Pistorius pointed out that no signs indicate that China will abandon its territorial claims in the South China Sea, as Beijing continues to deploy coast guards, maritime militia as well as sea and air forces in the waters concerned to enforce its claims.

Beijing also claims the Japan-controlled Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea.

“We are observing these developments with concern,” the defense minister said, emphasizing China’s significant responsibility for global peace and stability. He also noted that China is a partner for Germany, underscoring the importance of leveraging these ties.

Pistorius stated that officials from Germany’s army have recently visited Japan to coordinate their participation in the GSDF drills. This collaboration follows the conclusion of their defense pact earlier this year, aimed at facilitating exchanges of supplies and logistical support.

The acquisition and cross-servicing agreement, or ACSA, simplifies the process of sharing food, fuel and ammunition between Japan’s Self-Defense Forces and the German military.

The two countries’ maritime and air forces have already conducted joint exercises, and Germany is committed to deploying a frigate, a supply ship and aircraft in the Indo-Pacific region this year.

The German frigate is expected to make a port call in Japan in August, with the European country’s fighter jets planned to join a drill with Japan’s Air Self-Defense Force in July.

Germany, which had reduced its military spending after the end of the Cold War, is rebuilding its military following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022.

Pistorius said that Russia’s launch of the war against Ukraine in violation of international law was an eye-opener for his country and a “turning point.”

“Our military experts tell us that Russia would theoretically be able to attack NATO territory in five to eight years. Regardless of whether Moscow would take this risk or not, we must be prepared for anything,” he said while emphasizing that the country’s goal is deterrence.

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Anyone who grew up in the 1980s saw the first arrival of the Hyundai Excel. That was South Korea’s entry into the U.S. automobile market. In the ’90s, it was Kia’s turn. Now the two automakers are as ubiquitous on American roads as a Toyota Corolla or a Ford F-150.

China wants in on the action, and it will get there sooner than you think. China will be the new South Korea of autos in 10 years. In fact, don’t be shocked if a Chinese company buys out an American automaker at some point in the near future. But in the overall auto market, the sector Western governments keep talking about as the future is the electric vehicle (EV). This sector is China’s entry point into the U.S. China has already made inroads here for batteries, and its EVs beat American ones in Europe and all of Latin America.

The U.S. Auto Industry Is Drawn to China

As it is, some automakers already known in the U.S. are majority Chinese-owned. For example, MG is owned by Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation (SAIC), and Geely Motors owns 78.7% of Volvo as of Nov. 17, 2023.

The “Big Two” here in the U.S., Ford and General Motors—all that’s left of the auto industry after the 2008 Great Recession and subsequent consolidation—have been dying to make cars in China and ship them to West Coast ports. Ford said it will be making its new Lincoln Nautilus SUV in China and selling it here. They chose China over Mexico, which has a free trade deal with the U.S. That decision alone should attest to the huge cost advantage of manufacturing cars in China, let alone the economic and political benefits to Ford’s China business if the Chinese government likes them. China surpassed the U.S. as the world’s leading auto market in 2009.

GM has hinted many times, at least since 2015, that they want to make Buick SUVs in China. China is, in fact, Buick’s largest market. Meanwhile, GM has a joint venture with SAIC. In 2022, SAIC-GM exported their 1 millionth vehicle. This is an important relationship for GM; arguably more important than any relationship it has in Mexico.

That’s American legacy companies making cars in China. Now it’s China’s turn to make its own brands and sell them around the world.

EVs Are China’s Way Into the Global Auto Market

Nowhere is China as strongly positioned to do so as with EVs. EVs are China’s Trojan horse into the auto market in this hemisphere. Not only is China the world’s No. 1 producer of EVs; Chinese car battery makers lead the top five thanks to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., better known as CATL. Another Chinese company, BYD, is number three. This company was a big Warren Buffet investment years ago and probably still is. LG of South Korea is sandwiched between the two.

Some might say, “Yeah, but so what? No one is buying EVs.” That might have been true in 2023 in the U.S., but it’s not the case worldwide.

Sales of electric vehicles in 14 countries, including the U.S. and much of Western Europe, totaled 1.243 million units in November 2023, according to Marklines, an auto industry data publisher. This is a 22.5% year-over-year increase and a 11.6% month-over-month increase. The share of EVs sold for the single month of November was 22.7% of all new cars, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month. It was the highest number of EVs ever sold in a single month, beating December 2022’s 1.171 million units.

If you believe that Western governments are subsidizing EVs and legislating against gas-powered cars (like Gavin Newsom says he wants to do in California), then all of a sudden China’s unheard-of auto market can become a dominant player overnight.

It is worth noting that China’s car companies already produce the top-selling EVs globally in terms of units sold, but this is a skewed figure because China is the world’s biggest auto market, and the government there is pushing EVs on local consumers with an intensity similar to that of a drug dealer.

Despite that, Tesla is No. 1 in terms of units sold worldwide, with the Model Y and Model 3 being the top two bestsellers. But after Tesla, it’s all China makes and models except for the new Volkswagen ID.4, based on 2023 data from CleanTechnica. There is not a single Japanese or South Korean EV in the top 20.

China’s Leading EVs in Latin America

Notably, American car companies seem to have given up on the EV market in Latin America. Ford left Brazil during the COVID years, with no plans to manufacture there again. Germany’s Mercedes-Benz unit closed in Brazil in 2020. By contrast, China has already established a beachhead in several Latin American countries. Geely, BYD and Great Wall Motors, also Chinese, have replaced American companies and invested in assembly lines throughout Latin America.

Brazil: Brazil is Latin America’s largest auto market. EVs are a tiny portion of that market, maybe selling a little over 20,000 units in 2023. For traditional cars, the Chinese are nowhere to be seen yet. But for EVs in Brazil, there is not a single American car company in the pack. Most of the cars are hybrids, plug-ins with an engine, as that type of model is more affordable for Brazilian buyers. Geely’s XC60 Volvo EV is the No. 1 plug-in (PHEV) sold in Brazil. After that, it’s the Tiggo 8 by Chery and the Song Plus by BYD. Of the top 5 PHEV vehicles sold in Brazil, Chinese makes and models come in first, second and third, according to the Brazilian Association of Electric Motor Vehicles. It’s a puny market, but within the battery-powered sector, those plug-ins without a gas engine, Geely and BYD are the top two. Overall, China has 40% of the Brazilian battery-powered market and is building name brand recognition and trust.

Mexico: In Mexico, two of the top five EVs sold are Chinese cars. This includes the expensive Volvo EVs owned by Geely and the lower-end JAC Motors iEV models, which are priced as low as $12,000. You’d have to find a used Nissan Leaf if you wanted to get near that price in the U.S.

JAC’s Mexican director said the EV manufacturer is focused on the local market. “We decided to develop a factory in Mexico for Mexico,” Isidoro Massri, the general manager for JAC Mexico, told Automotive Logistics magazine in December. “We are not focused on exporting, everything that is produced here is produced by Mexico for Mexico.” That’s now, but wait a few years.

Argentina: The Argentina car market is horrible because the economy is a mess, with triple-digit inflation. There is a local EV maker there, but overall the country is a puny market for battery-powered cars and plug-in hybrids. BYD announced in 2017 that it would set up shop there to make EVs. The BYD e5 sedan is sold in Argentina, but its sales are nothing to brag about. Neither are Tesla’s, however.

Where China rules is in buses and trucks. BYD was the first to launch electric buses in Argentina. Foton, a Beijing-based truck manufacturer, is now selling battery-powered trucks in Argentina, fueled by CATL batteries. They chose Argentina to launch this model in the Americas back in March 2023.

Detroit Is Out, Beijing Is In

The U.S. invented the automobile for Main Street. Now the new car companies in the U.S., from Lucid Motors to Rivian, are making cars for millionaires with price points starting at $87,000. This means China has a perfect opening to introduce more affordable EVs to American consumers.

American automakers, including Tesla, that are getting into EVs because of legislation and tax incentives depend on China (or South Korea and Japan) to make their batteries—which are the engine of the EV. With the possible exception of Tesla, American car companies are already being surpassed globally by European, Japanese and South Korean gas-powered cars. Ford, for example, has given up on making four-door sedans thanks to competition from foreign rivals. Other than the Mustang, Ford only makes trucks and SUVs now. And for some American companies, it’s China’s domestic market that keeps them afloat.

In the U.S. today, you’re still about as likely to spot a Chinese-made EV as you are to spot a Fisker Ocean EV (that is, not very likely). But Chinese electric buses are everywhere. BYD USA makes battery-powered buses and is the market leader, signing this segment’s biggest sales order to date with the Los Angeles city government in 2019. Meanwhile, its U.S. competitor, Proterra, filed for bankruptcy in late August.

The EV segment is where China thinks it can stake its claim to be a global producer of future-famous makes and models. Governments in the West are promoting this new car market because of their professed fears of climate change, and we have seen how well China positions itself to reap the benefits of those fears. China rules the solar industry’s entire supply chain, and my guess is that it will surpass Europe with the world’s leading wind turbine brands in five years—barring tariffs, sanctions or domestic subsidies to prop up domestic companies.

Tariffs and quotas keep China’s massive auto market from flooding the zone here. But with new investments and partnerships in Mexico, like JAC Motors, Great Wall Motors, Geely, BYD, SAIC’s MG and Chery, it is only a matter of time before Mexican-made EVs belonging to Chinese car companies will be sold in the U.S.

The U.S. Is Falling Behind in BRICS Countries

The U.S. auto industry is not what it used to be. Within the big five emerging countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, otherwise known as the BRICS—the U.S. auto industry hasn’t had a dominant share in decades. In Brazil, the traditional gas-powered Chevrolet Onix and Onix Plus are in the top 10, along with the Jeep Compass and the Chevy Equinox. Ford’s not a top 10 there anymore.

In Russia, the Chevrolet Niva SUV was number two in sales as of Sept. 2023, but that is the end of American cars in Russia—U.S. companies outright lost their market share because American sanctions against Russia caused these companies to leave the country. Within the top 10, 70% of Russian cars are Chinese brands now.

Even in India, SAIC’s MG Comet EV is the best-selling foreign brand, although the top EVs in India are domestic names from Tata Motors and Mahindra, according to DriveSpark, an India automotive market news publisher. Not a single Western car is in the top 10 in India—neither a gas-powered engine nor the beloved EV.

In 2022, Ford was a top 10 seller in South Africa. China’s Chery is also in the top 10, selling below Ford’s numbers. GM products are not top sellers.

In China, American brands led by Buick and Tesla have given the U.S. automaker a 7.8% market share there. China wants us to return the favor. The real test for China’s market share in the U.S. will be with EVs.

America Is Worried, and With Good Reason

In 2017, Chinese company Geely announced its foray into the PHEV market with the Polestar, then later the fully electric Polestar 2. Production began in 2020 but slowed due to COVID. The car received excellent reviews and looks like a Tesla. Its MSRP is around $59,000, which is a lot more than the Tesla 3, which starts at around $39,000. If it wanted to, China could chop $10,000 off the price just to get into the market and become a direct competitor in the EV luxury sedan space, which for now is Tesla’s turf.

Polestar sold 1,128 units in the U.S. in November 2023 despite tariffs of around 28%. That was a 22.3% jump in sales from November 2022. Even though those numbers are not the sign of a long-term trend for Polestar, Washington is worried about the U.S. auto market’s EV future.

In December, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) announced a bill to block Inflation Reduction Act money and tax credits from going to Chinese EV battery makers. Pressure from Capitol Hill likely forced Ford to put its CATL partnership on pause in September 2023.

Also in December, people in Michigan started complaining about another EV battery maker, this time Gotion Hi-Tech of China, that was building a factory to serve U.S. automakers. That project is in serious jeopardy.

That same month, the Financial Times came out with a story about how Chinese battery makers such as CATL are overproducing batteries—making more batteries than there are cars. The publication was back at it again in January with a story looking at China’s EV supply chain leadership. Their compatriots at The Economist did the same with an article depicting Chinese cars approaching Earth like a meteor shower. They called the onslaught “terrifying.” Well, Western companies did it to themselves. They could have made a battery company at least. No one did, preferring to have the Japanese and South Koreans do it for them. So China joined in and said they’ll make the batteries, process all the minerals that go inside them, and make a bunch of battery-powered cars to sell around the world to rival the Westerners. They’re succeeding.

Everyone in China wants in on the act—private companies, provincially owned companies and the big state-owned ones. They’ll flood the market, lower prices and take market share from the South Koreans and the Japanese and maybe even Tesla, making it next to impossible, if not foolhardy, for an American company to dare enter the EV battery space in particular.

At the very least, if you’re driving an EV like a Ford Lightning or a Tesla, it will soon be powered by a Chinese battery. And in the not-so-distant future, if EVs really do take off in the U.S., Chinese brands will find their way in. If not here, then all over the Americas. Even if the market is small, China will own it.

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The Reichsbürger movement – made up of small groups and individuals spread across the country – peddles a number of bizarre views and rejects the legitimacy of the state.

In December last year, 25 people were arrested on suspicion of plotting to attack Germany’s parliament building, overthrow its constitutional order and install the group’s central figure – aristocrat Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss – as a leader.

Raids linked to the group continued this week, with German officials on Thursday saying they had placed one person who was a suspected member and supporter under formal arrest after a police offer was shot and wounded on Wednesday.

Germany’s Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said the shooting “shows how dangerous the missions are. It is the duty of the authorities to disarm Reichsbürger.”

As the crackdown continues, CNN takes a look at what exactly the movement is and the danger it poses.

What is the Reichsbürger movement?

The movement’s adherents have a range of beliefs, including that modern Germany is not a sovereign state and should therefore be rejected as a legitimate form of government.

Some believe that the German Empire of 1871 still exists while others want to bring back Hitler’s Third Reich.

Many subscribe to right-wing, populist, antisemitic and Nazi ideologies.

Werner Patzelt, a political scientist and former professor at TU Dresden, believes the Reichsbürger is less of a “movement” but rather “a loosely coupled network of political stupids who believe that, or at least behave as if, the Federal Republic of Germany does not exist.”

“They claim that Germany is still an occupied country under US control, or a business enterprise registered in Frankfurt,” he told CNN.

“From such fictitious ‘facts’ they derive both a ‘right’ not to pay taxes and penalties, or to establish ‘provisional political authorities.’

“Much of this is operetta-like. In some cases, however, criminal energy goes hand in hand with political nonsense, leading to attacks on financial or police officers.”

Followers refuse to cooperate with the German state in a number of ways including not paying taxes or choosing to print their own currency and identity cards.

Tobias Ginsburg is a German journalist who reported undercover on Germany’s far-right scene.

“You meet people there of all walks of life,” Ginsburg said. “I met the stereotypes, but also normal people, the dentist from downtown, someone working with the tax revenue service, just normal people. Some had no idea what they had entered.”

He thinks that authorities stepping in to prevent last year’s coup attempt is the “bare minimum” that can be done to tackle a wider issue of far-right extremism in Germany.

Ginsburg said that large parts of the German population had the perception of the Reichsbürger “that these are loonies, these are old people or even a Prince –– he seems strange – and the question that everyone is asking could they have been successful, but this is not the question.”

The “royal” concerned is 71-year-old Heinrich XIII Prince Reuss, one of the group’s alleged ringleaders. The prince is a descendant of the House of Reuss, the former rulers of parts of eastern Germany, and now works as a real estate entrepreneur, according to CNN affiliate NTV.

“What we need to see as a society and what our politicians need to understand is that the problem is not some so-called Reichsbürger, the problem is far-right ideology getting more and more people to act upon their beliefs,” Ginsburg adds.

How many followers does it have?

According to government data, there are about 23,000 Reichsbürger members, up from 19,000 in 2019.

Of these, an estimated 1,250 people are associated with the right-wing extremist scene.

Ginsburg believes the official figures are “conservative,” saying many members choose not to make their affiliation public.

The group gained prominence during the Covid-19 pandemic, which saw a significant rise in conspiracy theories in Germany, especially relating to the Reichsbürger and QAnon groups, according to research published by the Global Network on Extremism and Terror.

The Reichsbürger movement’s ideologies, including the refusal to follow restrictions imposed by the German state, found common cause among Covid-19 deniers and anti-lockdown protesters.

Such ideologies were peddled by the Querdenker organization – the largest Covid-19 deniers’ movement in Germany.

Querdenker organized large demonstrations to protest against Covid-19 measures mandated by the state, with symbols of the Reichsbürger and QAnon groups often displayed at such rallies.

How dangerous is it?

Germany’s Interior Ministry gave a damning assessment of the movement in a statement to CNN, describing adherents not as “harmless nutcases” but rather “dangerous extremists who are driven by violent fantasies and possess a lot of weapons.”

The group’s firearms stockpile has left authorities particularly concerned. The latest government figures show that around 400 members own weapons. Since 2016, 1,100 people have had their weapons permits revoked.

Some 2,300 adherents are considered to be prone to violence – an increase of 200 people compared to 2021.

According to the Institute for Strategic Dialogue, another cause for concern is that a significant number of the group’s members are thought to be current or former soldiers, including from elite units, who are highly trained and in some cases legally possess firearms.

Ginsburg calls the group “extremely dangerous” and is concerned that their ideology could spread.

“If you look at the right-wing AfD [Alternative for Germany] party – a big party after all – you find bits and pieces of that conspiracy theory in their official programs and you have people sitting in the parliament in far-right circles, in Reichsbürger circles,” he said.

To combat this threat, Ginsburg says the issue of the far right in Germany should be tackled in schools through better education on the subject.

“We talk so much about the fight against the far right and about the long shadow of history, and yet the education on what fascist beliefs are, how widespread are they, how can we stop them, they are vague at best,” he said.

The German government insists it will continue to take action – like the raids seen this week – until the country is rid of such extremism.

“We protect our democracy against extremist threats,” the Interior Ministry said. “We will continue this tough approach until we have completely exposed and dismantled these structures.

“No one in this extremist scene should feel safe.”

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This is especially true in Germany, which has for years spent far less on its military than many of its Western allies but is now reconsidering its approach to defense at home and abroad.

Days after the invasion began last February, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz delivered a head-turning speech to parliament in which he committed to spending €100 billion ($108 billion) to modernize Germany’s military capacity.

He also vowed that Germany would lift its defense spending to 2% of GDP – meeting a target set by NATO that it had missed for years – and end its deep reliance on Russian energy, particularly gas.

However, nearly a year on, critics say Scholz’s vision has failed to become reality. And Germany has been accused of dragging its feet when it comes to sending its more powerful weapons to Ukraine.

The criticism has grown in recent days as US and European leaders have piled pressure on Berlin to send German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, or at least allow other countries to do so.

Experts estimate there are around 2,000 Leopard tanks in use by 13 countries across Europe, and they are increasingly being seen as vital to Ukraine’s war effort as the conflict grinds into a second year. But Berlin must grant these nations approval to re-export German-made tanks to Ukraine, and it has so far resisted calls to do so.

Scholz has insisted that any such plan would need to be fully coordinated with the whole of the Western alliance, and German officials have indicated they won’t approve the transfer of Leopards unless the US also agrees to send some of its tanks to Kyiv.

On Friday, a key meeting of Western allies in Germany broke up without a wider agreement on sending tanks to Ukraine, after the country’s new defense minister Boris Pistorius said no decision had yet been made by his government.

Pistorius rebuffed claims that Germany has been “standing in the way” of a “united coalition” of countries in favor of the plan. “There are good reasons for the delivery and there are good reasons against it … all the pros and cons have to be weighed very carefully, and that assessment is explicitly shared by many allies,” he added.

Germany’s decision to dig in on sending tanks will likely go down badly with its allies, both in the immediate and long-term.

“It’s like acid eroding through layer after layer of trust,” a senior NATO diplomat told CNN on Friday. The diplomat added that Germany’s hesitance could also have a lasting impact on the rest of Europe and potentially push other members of the alliance closer towards the US, even if Germany is reluctant to do so.

And the divisions in the alliance have only grown more public in recent days – earlier in the week, Poland’s prime minister described Germany as “the least proactive country out of the group, to put it mildly,” and suggested his country might send Leopards to Ukraine without Berlin’s approval.

A balancing act

For all of the criticism of Germany’s hesitance on tanks, Berlin has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine over the past year. The US and the UK are the only two countries to have delivered more military aid to Kyiv than Germany since the invasion began, according to the Kiel Institute.

Germany’s military support for Ukraine has evolved over time. It ditched its longstanding policy of not delivering lethal weapons to conflict zones and recently has stepped up deliveries of heavier equipment to Ukraine, including armored infantry fighting vehicles and Patriot missile defense systems.

The government, however, sees tanks as a massive step up from the weaponry it’s delivered to Ukraine so far, and fears that authorizing German tanks to be used against Russia would be seen by Moscow as a significant escalation.

Experts say the reticence is partly borne of Berlin’s pragmatic approach to conflict in general, and a relatively timid military posture going back decades, informed by what Scholz himself has described as “the dramatic consequences of two world wars that originated in Germany.”

“Germany has been on a peace-time footing for years. We don’t have the expertise in procedure or procurement to do anything at speed right now. The truth is that for decades, we have seen our defense budget as a gift to our allies because they thought it was important,” said Christian Mölling, deputy director at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Whatever happens in Ukraine, Germany will have to ask itself some big questions about security in the coming years. The appetite to improve Germany’s armed forces has grown significantly since the start of the war.

Last week, Christine Lambrecht resigned as defense minister amid criticism of her efforts to modernize the military. Lambrecht had struggled to do anything of note with the €100bn that Scholz made available to her last year. The head of the Christian Democrats, the main opposition party in Germany, has accused the Chancellor of not taking his own speech last year seriously.

What does Germany want?

The person who now gets to spend that money is Pistorius, who German officials see as a safe pair of hands and up to the job. The question that he and Scholz must answer is how far Germany is willing to go in being a serious military presence in Europe.

In December, Germany admitted that it would not meet Scholz’s pledge to meet the NATO requirement on defense spending in 2022, and said it would likely miss the target again in 2023.

And its military’s combat readiness is inferior to that of some other European powers. According to the Rand cooperation, it would take Germany roughly a month to mobilize a fully-armored brigade, whereas the British army “should be able to sustain at least one armored brigade indefinitely.”

Defense experts say Germany will find it hard to move very far or very fast in its efforts to bolster its military.

“Yes, we have committed to spending more on our security, but without any clear idea of exactly what it should be spent on or how it fits into a broader security strategy,” Mölling said.

Mölling also believes that German’s defense ambitions could be hamstrung by political will: “Careers have been built on the narrative that Germany is a peace-loving nation. The public mood is shifting and possibly at a tipping point, but it would be very hard to be the leader that drove to make Germany a leading player in European security.”

European officials and diplomats are pessimistic and think that the reality of German politics means it will ultimately continue resisting serious reform on defense.

A pivotal moment

It is often said in diplomatic circles that Germany’s 21st-century model for success has been built on three pillars: cheap Chinese labor, cheap Russian energy, and American guarantees of security.

Many believe this well-known preference for diplomatic pragmatism and subsequent reluctance to pick sides will mean any defense reforms will be severely limited.

One German official told CNN that it will be hard for mainstream politicians to break free from old habits: “They have an inherent skepticism against siding overtly with the USA and a subtle hope that the relationship with Russia can be fixed.”

Berlin has also lent its support to Ukraine in other ways, taking action to wean itself off of Russian gas and setting an example for the rest of Europe, which has seen its overall consumption of gas go down since the start of the war. Europe’s relatively warm winter has of course helped, but stopping Putin from weaponizing energy has been an important factor in the Western pushback on Moscow.

But the security map of Europe has been redrawn, as have the dividing lines in international diplomacy. Russia’s unprovoked invasion of another country has demonstrated more clearly than ever that moral values are not universal.

Germany, Europe’s wealthiest country, has undeniably benefited enormously from its policy of keeping feet in two camps. It is protected by NATO membership while maintaining economic relations with undesirable partners.

That policy has been called out and Germany must now decide exactly what kind of voice it wants to have in the current conversation taking place about global security. The decisions it takes in the next few years could play a crucial role in defining the security of the entire European continent for decades to come.

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For months, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has been pushing his western allies to equip his troops with heavy tanks so they can break the stalemate with Russian forces.

Before the Ukraine conflict broke out almost a year ago, many experts thought that tanks had become obsolete in the face of precision missiles, drones and cyber warfare.

But tanks have assumed strategic importance as the Russian-Ukraine troops have dug themselves into trenches in places such as the Luhansk and the Zaporizhzhya region.

There’s only one problem: Western allies can’t decide on who should take the lead and send track-wheeled heavy armour to Ukraine.

A German dilemma 

Germany, Europe’s industrial powerhouse, is at the crossroads, facing pressure from Ukraine and Western allies, especially the United States, to send its powerful Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine.

Even though Berlin has financed Ukraine with billions of dollars, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has time and again expressed fear that the tanks could be seen as a sign of Berlin escalating the conflict.

“They want to support Ukraine. But they don’t want to provoke Russia. So the pattern we have seen so far since the initial Russian invasion is that it takes a great deal of time for the US and NATO countries to come around to supplying more potent weaponry,” Benjamin E Goldsmith, a professor of international relations at the Australian National University, told TRT World.

Germany has insisted that the US should take the lead and supply the American-made M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine instead.

Berlin’s hesitation to become the first mover of battle tanks stems from its role in  World War I and II, in which millions of people were killed.

Ever since the end of Nazi Germany in World War II, successive German leaders have maintained a pacifist approach, adopting peace-oriented postures and avoiding military buildups.

Can there be a breakthrough?

The issue has rekindled debate ahead of a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group (UDCG) at the US-run Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Thursday (January 19). The UDCG, which includes the US and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) alliance members, will assess Ukraine’s military needs.

Germany is yet to reveal its approach toward the meeting. Since Christine Lambrecht, the German defence minister, resigned on January 16, her successor Boris Pistorius has yet to make any policy statement regarding his stance on Ukraine.

Lambrecht stepped down after facing criticism on how she was dealing with Europe’s worst military crisis since World War II.

Pistorius, the new defence minister, now faces the challenge of dealing with the Leopard 2 issue.

Germany wants the US-made Abrams battle tanks to be deployed in Ukraine before it decides to send its own Leopard 2 tanks. (AP)

Germany is also grappling with another difficult aspect in light of the UK’s fresh announcement about sending 14 British-made Challenger tanks to Ukraine. London’s move has left Germany at an odd spot, as murmurs of Berlin developing cold feet are gaining traction.

Two dozen heavy tanks will give a little edge to Ukraine’s armoured battalions.

Ukraine’s top military commander General Valery Zaluzhny told The Economist in an interview that Ukraine needs 300 tanks, 600 to 700 armoured fighting vehicles and 500 Howitzers to reverse Russia’s battleground gains.

Why Leopard 2?

Leopard 2, which is equipped with a 122mm cannon, is one of the most effective tanks in the world with the ability to hit car-sized targets from kilometres away while it’s on the move.

Leopard 2 is being mooted as the best option for Ukraine because militaries in Ukraine’s neighbourhood have tanks in their military arsenal.

The tank is used by 13 European states including Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Poland and Sweden.

According to the European Council on Foreign Relations, these countries have around 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks. But they can not supply the tanks to Ukraine without Germany’s approval.

Since Leopard 2 tanks are widely used, Ukraine can quickly obtain spare parts. From the operational standpoint, the Polish or Finnish military can easily train the Ukrainian tank operators since the former is familiar with using such vehicles.

The US-made Abrams will have to cross many borders to be delivered and maintaining the logistics of spare parts over such a long distance would be difficult.

M1 Abrams is also known as a fuel guzzler. Since they run on kerosene-grade diesel, refuelling them is not an easy task.

Time is running out

From a strategic point of view, Ukraine is at a critical juncture.

Snow will start melting within a few weeks and Russia has deployed its top military commander, Valery Gerasimov, to lead the troops on the battlefield as it prepares for what’s being dubbed the Spring Offensive.

Ukraine, which relies on Soviet-era artillery, has faced trouble finding ammunition and had to rely on unlikely sources.

Weapons made in Western countries, including shoulder-fired anti-tank missiles, have been decisive in halting the advance of Russian troops. But the utility of main battle tanks such as the Leopard 2 has become evident as they can help soldiers manoeuvre rather safely during close-range fighting.

After months of dragging his feet on the matter, US President Joe Biden approved the delivery of the Patriot air defence system to Ukraine in December 2022.

But he has brushed aside Zelenskyy’s demand of acquiring surface-to-surface Army Tactical Missile Systems. Biden fears this can allow Kyiv to hit targets inside Russia, dragging NATO into a direct conflict with President Vladimir Putin.

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A video recently surfaced on social media of two police officers in Berlin brutally arresting a Syrian refugee in his home, in front of his two young children, for the non-payment of a 750 Euro ($475) fine. When the man’s wife protested the aggressive nature of the arrest, one police officer turned to her and said, “this is my land, you are a guest here.”

Soon after the video went viral, the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) jumped in with a near-full-page newspaper ad titled ‘We stand with you in support of the rogue police officer.

For Germany, this marked a turning point: In the ensuing weeks, the country noted a marked increase in far-right protests in bigger cities, followed closely by violence and a suspected arson attack on the home of some Ukrainian refugees.

Massive protests by the far-right neo-Nazi AfD have been particularly prevalent in Berlin, where protestors have decried both the country’s energy shortage and the inflation of the cost of living. ‘When there’s not enough for Germans, why give it to outsiders’ has become their new rallying call.

But more worryingly, Germany’s top polling agency recently reported a steep rise in the popularity of the AfD in political opinion polls across the country.

Declining orders

Analysts agree that the larger catalyst for the change in sentiment of the German voter is the country’s gradual economic decline, the end of which is not yet visible.

“Yes, it’s worrying; one often sees [that] these kinds of parties tend to do well in times of crises. We saw it in the Syrian refugee crisis, in the corona pandemic crisis and it’s happening again now while we’re going through an economic and energy crisis,” says political analyst professor Hajo Funke.

The German economy is facing a recession, with its GDP heading toward a downward slide for the year 2023 and its exports taking a serious hit, with declining orders from international buyers. The country’s current account surplus narrowed sharply to 0.6 billion Euros (nearly $600 million) in August 2022 from 17 billion Euros (close to $17 billion) in the same month last year.

The ongoing energy crisis means heating costs have more than doubled for many across the country, pushing thousands of businesses to shut down.

One of Germany’s largest bakery chains Thilmann Brot GmbH has gone bankrupt, and the country’s largest toilet paper manufacturer Hakle has closed down due to rising energy prices.

As Germany prepares for the upcoming recession, there are fears that public spending cuts affecting welfare payments will further elevate far-right movements.

Funke says, “With the Ukrainian war, we now have 1.2 million refugees in Germany who are also facing the sort of problems Syrian refugees faced, especially in the east of the country.”

The problem in the East

In the east of Germany, there are states that were previously part of the now-former USSR-aligned East Germany, where pro-Russian sentiment is still thriving. From the onset of the war in Ukraine, what initially were murmurs of opposition to sanctions against Russia have now evolved into a shrill protest.

Many of these states have remained economically deprived since the reunification of Germany, with fewer job opportunities and higher rates of crime and drug abuse.

In the state of Saxony, in the relatively affluent city of Leipzig, a demonstration against inflation and the energy crisis took an ugly turn when protestors came across Ukrainian refugees and began to shout slogans against Russian sanctions and about how Ukrainian refugees weren’t welcome in Germany — because Germans aren’t doing so well themselves.

While the German government is currently hosting a conference on rebuilding efforts in Ukraine, there is fast-receding support for the former Soviet state — at least in some quarters of the German public.

In another eastern state, Mecklenburg Vorpommern, pollsters have measured a five percent rise in the number of people saying they would vote for the AfD in future elections.

While no direct correlation can be established with the AfD, a home for Ukrainian refugees was burnt down in the town of Wismar, raising reasonable suspicion. Authorities suspect it was an arson attack and are quietly worried that such assaults could rise in frequency, leading to wider opposition to Ukrainian refugees and further dissipating public approval of Germany’s financial and militaristic support to Ukraine.

“We know Wismar is a hotspot for neo-Nazis — it has been so for a while. This was definitely a racist attack on Ukrainian refugees and the fear is that it will increase. The economic crisis has aroused these sentiments, there is no question about that,” says Funke.

In a 2017 interview, the son of a former Nazi general warned that ideology coupled with economic deprivation could steer Germany towards a return to authoritarianism.

Niklas Frank, son of the former governor-general of then-Nazi-occupied Poland, told the BBC in an interview: “Don’t trust us Germans.”

Niklas, who has openly expressed disgust for the crimes committed by his father during the Nazi regime, warned that “as long as our economy is great, and as long as we make money, everything is very democratic.”

However, he added that a sustained economic recession could lead Germany to abandon all democratic values and push it back into the arms of authoritarianism.

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Marching to mark 31 years since Ukraine became independent from the Soviet Union, they wanted to remind their German hosts that Ukraine is still a war zone and that high gas prices are a small price to pay compared to Ukrainian lives.

Yet for some, below the surface, another frustration is bubbling away: the difficulty of living in Germany amid the war back home.

Activists say since the invasion in February, there had been an increase in the harassment of Ukrainian activists and supporters.

‘They want to kill me’

Veronika is out in Berlin shouting through a megaphone to direct Ukrainian activists. Since February, she says she’s reported three Russians to the police for violence on the metro and at Alexanderplatz after they saw her Ukrainian-coloured wristband.

“They want to provoke,” she said, speaking of the Russians she’s encountered since the war. “They’re aggressive. We don’t want conflict, we’ve had enough of it already.”

Wearing a sunflower headdress, Valerya, 20, is fed up with life in Germany. She came when the war started, but wants to go home as soon as possible.

“There are a lot of Russian people here and they’re very aggressive. They told me they want to kill me and my people” she told Euronews.

Anastasiia Lavrova was just visiting Berlin for a few days in May and said she was targeted in the metro. A man next to her leapt up and rudely shook his hands at her, staring aggressively and then screamed “bitch” in Russian.

“First second I was shocked and couldn’t understand what happened but after a while, I realized that on the right side of my bag was yellow and blue tape and a small pin too,” she told Euronews.

Veronika, left, and Valerya, rightCredit: James Jackson

Russian speakers also threatened

But it’s not just Ukrainians being abused, Russian speakers in the German capital have also been harassed.

Datscha, a Russian restaurant in Berlin, has received a number of threatening phone calls, including one that someone would come round with a shotgun. The eatery put up a sign outside in response saying “war has no place in our community” and raised money and clothes for Ukrainian refugees.

There has also been an arson attack on a German-Russian school and Soviet monuments damaged, according to Human Rights Watch.

The Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) said in mid-April it had registered more than 1,700 crimes in connection with the war, including incidents against Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians.

It told HRW that around 200 such crimes were happening each week.

“In the last few weeks, we have spoken to many Russians about their experiences since the beginning of the war,” wrote Eva Cosse, an HRW researcher.

“A 40-year-old woman from Russia who has lived in Germany for 17 years reported that at the end of April, while she was walking in a Berlin park with her daughter and her Ukrainian cousin, she was threatened with rape. She managed to escape but said she was shocked: ‘In public, I now speak more quietly when I speak Russian. And in the playground, I pay attention to who is with or near my daughter’.”

There have also been offers of help for Ukraine from Russian-German organizations, with groups like the Central Hamburg Club of Russian-Germans condemning all outbreaks of violence and pointing to their history of discrimination in the Soviet Union, where many were put into camps and deported for being suspected of loyal to Germany during World War II.

“Because of these experiences, but also because of our history, our solidarity goes to all people living in Ukraine, and also to all those who are protesting in Russia against their country’s policies that are contrary to international law,” the club said.

“We know from the past that no peace can be brought about by violence. Everything must now be done by non-violent means to stop the senseless bloodshed on all sides.

“We feel connected to suffering people in Ukraine and support the collection of donations in kind and offer help for those seeking protection.”

A participant of a peace march holds a poster with the slogan "Russians are 
against the war" near the Russian Consulate General cordoned off by police in 
Frankfurt, GermanyCredit: AP Photo

‘Unpleasant and terrifying’

It is hard to say exactly how many Ukrainians call Germany home.

There were around 150,000 before the war, according to the Central Register of Foreigners and around 971,000 have been recorded in the country since Russia invaded in February.

Meanwhile, it is estimated there are around three million Russian speakers in Germany, many of whom came from former Soviet Union countries after its collapse in the early 1990s.

Vitsche, an association of young Ukrainians in Germany, claims there has always been harassment of Ukrainians but that it had increased since the invasion.

It claims its activists have received death threats and FSB-style harassment. Many have had their doorbells rung at 3 am by men wearing masks in black cars who shout obscenities before speeding off. One of their activists even had his house broken into, with white powder scattered around the bathroom.

Germany has also been the site of many pro-Russian demonstrations. One Vitsche volunteer, a refugee from Kyiv, was on the street near their headquarters in Berlin when a Russian parade of cars waving flags was outside. She asked them what they were doing. They got aggressive and told her that they will find her and rape her, she said.

In Frankfurt an der Oder, a town on the Polish border, Mariia, a 25-year-old student, said she was provoked at her university dormitory.

“It all started with some Zs in laundry rooms and the dorm,” Mariia, a 25-year-old student, told Euronews. “They were spreading. At first, it was just one and then there were more and more. It’s a psychological attack and I have to see them every day. During the worst time of the Mariupol siege, there was a sentence put on a notice board saying ‘kill all Azov members.”

“I felt scared. When it was dark I didn’t want to go outside alone because I didn’t know what to expect, if there was someone around the corner waiting to attack. I was scared all these months. It was definitely a psychological attack. When I first saw Zs I had a panic attack just like at the beginning of the war. It was unpleasant and terrifying.”

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