In 1991, the Soviet Union fell as well. Since then, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been at odds with each other over Nagorno-Karabakh and Nakhichevan. Until two months ago, Armenians lived in Nagorno-Karabakh, an area within Azerbaijan. Azeris still live in Nakhichevan, an area within Armenia that borders Iran and Turkey. Yes, this sounds complicated but so are most imperial hangovers.

Map dated 2016 © osw.waw.pl/.

On September 19, Azerbaijan launched a large-scale military offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. This autonomous ethnic Armenian enclave called itself the Republic of Artsakh. Within 24 hours, this so-called republic ceased to exist. Now, Azerbaijani military forces control Nagorno-Karabakh. The Artsakh Defense Army stands disbanded and people who lived here for centuries, if not millennia, have fled to Armenia.

David J. Scheffer of the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) states that Armenians are “experiencing ethnic cleansing at warp speed.” Others defend Azerbaijan and argue that its troops are only restoring sovereignty to territory that is rightfully theirs. Armenia had controlled Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding areas, all legally Azerbaijani territory, until a few years ago.

Azerbaijanis claim that this Armenian exodus is voluntary. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev promised to protect Armenian civil rights in Nagorno-Karabakh, but fleeing Armenians feared persecution and massacre “after years of mutual distrust and open hatred between Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

A complicated history that goes back centuries

Over time, various empires have conquered and controlled the South Caucasus. Generals like Cyrus, Alexander and Pompey swept through this mountainous region. In antiquity, winning in the South Caucasus was essential if you wanted to be called “the Great.”

Why is the South Caucasus so important for the likes of Cyrus or Alexander the Great? Geography provides us the answer.

The South Caucasus lies at the crossroads of empires. To its west, lies the Mediterranean Sea which was the locus of the Macedonian, Roman and Ottoman empires. To its north and east (beyond the Caspian Sea), lie the great Eurasian grasslands that were once dominated by the Mongols and now by the Russians. To the south of the South Caucasus lie the Tigris and Euphrates rivers — historically known as Mesopotamia — and the Iranian plateau that was the power base of the Persian Empire.

This mountainous region has been the meeting place for great empires and the battleground for great powers. Romans and Persians traded Armenia back and forth. Over the past five centuries, Safavid Persia, Ottoman Turkey and the Russian Empire have controlled different parts of this territory at different times. Their successor states still jostle over the South Caucasus today.

World War I was critical in forging modern South Caucasus. Tsarist Russia faced disastrous defeat. In 1917, a revolution erupted and Russian control of this region evaporated. Idealists forged the Transcaucasian Democratic Federative Republic, which disintegrated into Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia within five weeks. In this age of ethnic nationalism, a multiethnic state proved a bridge too far, especially for the fractious South Caucasus.

Like the Russians, the Ottomans fared poorly in World War I. Armenia took advantage of Ottoman weakness to take control over Nakhchivan. Rebellions by the local Muslim population followed but Armenia managed to retain control. In the case of Zangezur and Karabakh, Azerbaijan stood in Armenia’s way and both these young countries fought inconclusively.

When World War I ended, the Ottoman Empire collapsed as well. Mustafa Kemal Atatürk set out to create a modern Turkish nation state. Out went a multiethnic empire, in came a more ethnically homogeneous nation. The Turks expelled the Greeks and the Armenians from this new state. Modern Turkey was built through ethnic cleansing, although the Ottomans had set the ball rolling with the Armenian Genocide in 1915.

Atatürk was rebelling against the peace settlement imposed by the victorious allies in 1920. The Treaty of Sèvres wrested the Arab and Greek portions of the Ottoman empire from Turkish control. The British and the French divvied up the Arab lands between themselves. Along with Italy, they also carved Turkey into spheres of influence. Atatürk defeated the occupying forces, scrapped the old treaty and negotiated the far more favorable 1923 Treaty of Lausanne.

The now largely forgotten Treaty of Sèvres provided for an independent Armenia. The idealistic Woodrow Wilson proposed that the US be the protector of this new Armenia. The 1920 treaty envisioned an Armenia four and a half times larger than the one today. Sadly for Wilson and Armenia, the US turned isolationist at the end of the war. The US Senate withdrew from the League of Nations and torpedoed Wilson’s plans for Armenia.

While the US turned inward, the newly formed Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), now better known as the Soviet Union, went back to its expansionist imperial Russian roots. As one of the authors explained in his earlier piece, the Soviet 11th Army took over the South Caucasus, including Armenia and Azerbaijan, in 1920. The Treaty of Sèvres was stillborn.

For the next seven decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan were Soviet republics. Moscow drew their borders largely on ethnic lines. The USSR granted Zangezur to Armenia, Nakhchivan became an Azerbaijani exclave and Karabakh became an autonomous province within Azerbaijan. The Soviets dubbed Karabakh the Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) because Nagorny Karabakh in Russian simply means the highlands of Karabakh.

The dormant Nagorno-Karabakh volcano explodes

By the late 1980s, the Soviet empire began disintegrating. The Berlin Wall fell on November 9, 1989. On December 31, 1991, the Soviet Union itself dissolved. Ethnic tensions held in check by communist repression erupted like a dormant volcano.

In 1988, ethnic Armenians living in the NKAO demanded their region be transferred from Soviet Azerbaijan to Soviet Armenia. The conflict exploded into an all-out war when the Soviet Union collapsed. Fighting only ceased in 1994 and Armenia emerged as the winner. Armenian troops took control over Nagorno-Karabakh and seven adjacent districts. Armenia now controls 20% of Azerbaijan. An estimated one million Azerbaijanis became refugees and internally displaced persons. Armenia did not have it all its own way though. About 300,000–500,000 Armenians from Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh, and Nakhchivan made their way to Armenia.

The end of the war in 1994 did not lead to peace. Deadly incidents continued. Both sides used troops, special operations forces, artillery, other heavy weaponry and, more recently, drones. In April 2016, fighting broke out but stopped after just four days. Yet hundreds died on both sides. On the whole, an uneasy peace persisted until 2020.

During this uneasy peace, Armenia forged a security partnership with Russia while Azerbaijan developed a close relationship with Turkey. A shared Muslim faith and a common Turkic ethnic identity helped. Even though Armenia and Russia are part of the Oriental Orthodox Christian traditions, Moscow still sold weapons to Azerbaijan and played both sides.

Starting in 2007, things changed dramatically. BP discovered gas at “a Caspian-record depth of more than 7,300 meters” about 70 kilometers southeast of Baku. Flush with gas wealth, the balance of power began to shift in Azerbaijan’s favor in the 2010s. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey rejected Atatürk’s secular European identity and embraced a neo-Ottoman foreign policy. Erdoğan’s political Islam led to greater military support for Azerbaijan and Baku’s geostrategic position improved. More gas money and Turkish military support gave Azerbaijan the edge over Armenia in the latest edition of South Caucasus geopolitical chess.

In late 2020, Azerbaijan made its decisive move and succeeded in reclaiming much of the territory Armenia had occupied since 1994. The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War lasted 44 days and left at least 6,500 dead. Azerbaijan was unable to break through the defenses of Artsakh and Russia brokered an uneasy truce. Nearly 2,000 Russian peacekeepers were to enforce the peace. These troops were deployed along the three-mile-wide Lachin corridor, the sole overland route connecting Nagorno-Karabakh to Armenia.

The ceasefire agreement granted Azerbaijan control of Nagorno-Karabakh’s cultural capital, Shusha, which Armenians refer to as Shushi and several other towns. Azerbaijan also gained surrounding Azeri territories that Armenians had held since 1994. Local Armenians got to retain control of the northern half of the region, along with Stepanakert, the capital of Artsakh. Future peace talks were to decide the final political status of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Azerbaijan grabs a historic opportunity with both hands

Needless to say, the peace did not hold. In December 2022, Azerbaijan closed off the Lachin corridor. The Russia-Ukraine War broke out on February 24, 2022. The 2018 Velvet Revolution ousted the Russia-friendly Republican Party that had been in power since 1999. After the revolution, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan took charge. Armenia began to extricate itself from the arms of Russia and started flirting with the US. This poked the Russian bear and earned Pashinyan’s Putin’s ire.

Azerbaijan had a once in many generations opportunity and Baku seized it with glee. In December 2022, Azerbaijan violated the 2020 ceasefire agreement and closed off the Lachin corridor. This ten-month blockade denied 120,000 Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh food, fuel and medicine. Putin’s peacekeepers stood idly by and Artsakh’s fate hung in the balance.

By April, Armenians found themselves in a dire situation. Pashinyan dramatically relinquished Armenia’s claim to Nagorno-Karabakh in an effort to stop the long-running conflict. This failed to bring peace. On April 23, set up a checkpoint on the Lachin corridor, which was called “the road of life” for Artsakh. Neither Russian peacekeepers nor Western powers did much to help. By September, it was all over. Azerbaijan controlled all of Nagorno-Karabakh, Artsakh evaporated and Armenians fled to Armenia.

A little more than two weeks before Azerbaijan’s decisive move, Pashinyan had declared that “solely relying on Russia to guarantee its security was a strategic mistake.” History may judge his ill-judged statement as a historic blunder. Pashinyan turned to the West in general and the US in particular to guarantee Armenia’s safety. However, to paraphrase a Chinese proverb, the mountains were high and the emperor was far away. The US had far too many pots on the boil to worry about Armenia.

Pashinyan forgot one simple fact: realpolitik is a rough game. The EU needs Azerbaijani gas after putting sanctions on Russia. In 2021, Europe imported 8 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas from Azerbaijan. This year, gas imports are expected to be 12 bcm and are on track to double by next year. Clearly, gas supplies trump the unity of Christendom for the EU. Post-Brexit UK is in the money because of BP. So, Armenia can expect little help from a land that was once the realm of Richard the Lionheart.

Azerbaijan has also been able to win over Israel to its side. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), 13% of Israel’s arms exports were destined for Azerbaijan in the 2017-2021 period. They comprised more than 60% of Azerbaijani arms imports and included drones, missiles, and mortars. Furthermore, the Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) reveals that 65% of Israel’s 2021 crude oil imports came from Azerbaijan.

Much more discreet than SIPRI and OEC figures are the close strategic collaboration between Israel and Azerbaijan for realpolitik reasons. Intelligence Online claims that Israeli military and intelligence contributed to Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Naturally, Israel has an ax to grind. Azeris comprise 16% of Iran’s population, three times the population of Azerbaijan. Although they have yet to rebel against Tehran, Azeris report widespread discrimination despite being largely Shias. By backing Azerbaijan, Israel is winning over Azeris and could foment trouble in the future against Iran. More importantly, Israel’s elite organizations — Unit 8200, Mossad and Sayeret Matkal — reportedly use Azerbaijan as a base of operations against Iran. For Israel, Armenia is eminently expendable in the pursuit of its national security goals.

For the US, Azerbaijan is of vital national interest because it borders both Russia and Iran, two key enemies. Washington cannot displease Baku too much and push it into the arms of Russia. Despite a powerful Armenian American diaspora that has historically backed the Democrats, the Biden administration turned the Nelson’s eye to Azerbaijan’s actions and did not back Armenia.

In contrast, Turkey is backing Azerbaijan to the hilt. Less than a week after Azerbaijan’s victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, Aliyev hosted Erdoğan in Nakhchivan. The two hailed this victory and signed a deal for a gas pipeline. Erdoğan was “very pleased” to “connect Nakhchivan with the Turkish world.” Turkey’s support for Azerbaijan paralyzes NATO, which cannot support Armenia. Most Muslim countries in the nearby Arab world to the more distant Pakistan, support Azerbaijan.

Poor Pashinyan is isolated. He has found himself with two not-very-useful friends: neighboring Iran and faraway India. Both are not powerful enough to stave off disaster for landlocked Armenia. Besides, the Israel-Hamas war raging has cast Armenia further into the shadows. No one is likely to act against further Azerbaijani aggression.

What happens next?

Erdoğan and Aliyev have clearly signaled that Nakhchivan is next on the menu. They fear that Armenia could do this 460,000-strong Azeri enclave what Azerbaijan did to the Armenian enclave in Nagorno-Karabakh. Ethnic cleansing is a game two can play and Azerbaijan must press home its advantage before the tide turns.

Therefore, Baku seeks the Zangezur corridor, a transport link through Armenia’s southernmost province Syunik to Nakhchivan. This landlocked Azerbaijani territory has a small border with Turkey and a much larger one with Iran. The former backs the Zangezur corridor while the latter opposes it. The descendants of the Ottomans and Safavids are clashing again in the South Caucasus.

Under Erdoğan, Turkey aims to breathe fire into the Organization of Turkic States, an attempt to bring together Turkic peoples all the way to Kazakhstan. Once Turkish horsemen dominated Central Asia. Today, Erdoğan is looking east and south, not west and north, to expand Turkey’s influence. Therefore, the Zangezur corridor is an opportunity to create a new trade route between Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia and China.

Despite academics like Anna Ohanyan calling the Zangezur corridor a violation of Armenian sovereignty and a challenge to the global rules-based order, Yerevan and Baku are engaged in peace talks. On December 7, they agreed to exchange prisoners of war. After failed mediation by the EU, the US and Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan are engaged in direct bilateral discussions. Yet mutual distrust is high and both sides are unlikely to come up with a lasting peace deal.

So far, Armenia has played a weak hand badly. Pashinyan has lost much of the goodwill he gained during the Velvet Revolution. Even before Azerbaijan’s conquest of Nagorno-Karabakh, Pashinyan’s popularity was declining precipitously. Now, many Armenians revile him as a weak and ineffective leader who has led the country to disastrous defeat.

Pashinyan has continued to offend Moscow by refusing to allow Russian troops to conduct military exercises and declining to attend an alliance summit. Armenia has also joined the Treaty of Rome that established the International Criminal Court (ICC). The ICC has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. By joining such an organization, Pashinyan is spitting in the tsar’s face and inviting further Russian wrath.

Notably, Armenia is economically dependent on Russia. The country’s landlocked geography does not make things easy. Turkey lies west, Azerbaijan east, Georgia north and Iran south. Therefore, about 40% of Armenian exports make their way to Russia. Armenia depends on Russian grain, oil, gas and basic goods almost completely. Gazprom owns all of Armenia’s gas distribution infrastructure. The country depends on remittances from Armenians working in Russia. In 2022, $3.6 billion out of the total remittances of $5.1 billion came from Russia.

Armenia still remains a member of the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, Commonwealth of Independent States and Eurasian Economic Union. Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine War, the Armenian economy has become even more dependent on its Russian counterpart. Currently, Pashinyan is visiting Russia, promising greater economic bloc cooperation but Putin is unlikely to give his rebellious satrap much of a break. Russia is grinding down Armenia into submission and will only relent when Pashinyan is no longer prime minister.

With little external support or internal legitimacy, Pashinyan is in no position to make peace. With Turkey’s help, Azerbaijan will put Armenia under duress and drive a hard bargain. If Pashinyan does not capitulate, Azerbaijani troops can drive home their advantage. This time, the conflict might draw Turkey and Iran into the fight. Russia will wait and watch but eventually intervene. Israel, NATO, the UK and the US might also find themselves sucked into this conflict. Yet again, the South Caucasus has become a powder keg but few are paying this region the attention it deserves.

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The region’s health department said 13 bodies were found and seven people had died of their wounds after the blast outside the regional capital of Stepanakert – called Khankendi by Azerbaijan – late on Monday.

It also said 290 people had been hospitalized and “dozens of patients remain in critical condition”. The warehouse was used to give out fuel to those who wanted to leave the region in their cars. Hundreds of people were gathered there when the explosion took place.

A team of medics are en route from Yerevan to Stepanakert by helicopter to help the victims, carrying necessary medication and medical supplies, the healthcare ministry said. Last week’s offensive came after a months-long blockade of the region by Azerbaijan that caused shortages of essential supplies.

“As a result of the explosion, Azerbaijan prepared nearby local hospitals and started negotiations on the evacuation of the wounded, but representatives of the Armenian residents of Karabakh did not accept this proposal,” said Al Jazeera’s correspondent Osama bin Javaid, reporting from the Azerbaijani city of Horadiz.

The announcement of the death toll came amid people fleeing the region, with Armenia saying that 13,350 “forcibly displaced persons” entered the country. In a statement, the government also said it would provide accommodation for all those in need.

On the diplomatic front, national security advisers from Azerbaijan, Armenia, France, Germany and the European Union special representative for the region are scheduled to meet in Brussels on Tuesday.

Simon Mordue, chief diplomatic adviser to European Council President Charles Michel, will chair the talks, the latter’s spokesperson told Al Jazeera.

“This is to take stock of the current situation and prepare for a possible meeting of leaders in Granada,” said Ecaterina Casinege, referring to the Spanish city.

Armenians waiting in their cars at the border crossing station at the Lachin checkpoint [Emmanuel Dunad/AFP]

Azerbaijan’s military attacked Nagorno-Karabakh on September 19, announcing 24 hours later to have won control over the enclave. The offensive forced ethnic Armenian authorities in the region to agree to lay down weapons and start “reintegration” talks, under a ceasefire agreement brokered by traditional regional powerhouse Russia.

Azerbaijani authorities promised to respect the rights and security of Armenians living in the region. But the news of their reintegration into Azerbaijan was met with panic and chaos among ethnic Armenians who feared that the long history of hatred and violence between the two would make any form of co-habitation impossible.

On the road heading to Armenia, more and more residents from the region appeared to be trying to get out.

“It’s a steady stream of people, we have seen in the distance miles and miles of ques of people lining up to leave,” said bin Javaid.

“The people are living with whatever they can put their hands, in whatever vehicle they can find, but they want to go out despite all assurances that have been given by the Azerbaijani authorities,” he added.

At a refugee center in Goris, Valentina Asryan, a 54-year-old from the village of Vank who fled with her grandchildren, told AFP news agency her brother-in-law was killed and several other people were injured by Azerbaijani fire.

A long dispute

Nagorno-Karabakh has been contested for more than three decades, with Baku and Yerevan vying for its control.

The territory is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but is heavily populated by ethnic Armenians.

Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, separatists in Nagorno-Karabakh declared their independence with the goal of reuniting with Armenia. That triggered a bloody war in the 1990s that ended with Armenians taking control of the enclave and several districts around it. Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced due to the conflict.

A second war erupted in 2020 with Azerbaijan retaking territory in and around the enclave.

After 44 days of fighting, Russia brokered a ceasefire and placed nearly 2,000 peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.

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Armenia said it is prepared to take them in after Azerbaijan’s military victory last week in a conflict dating to the fall of the Soviet Union.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Sunday that he expected about 120,000 civilians in the region in the South Caucasus to leave for Armenia because they do not want to live in a part of Azerbaijan and fear “the danger of ethnic cleansing”.

“The likelihood is increasing that the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh will see expulsion from their homeland as the only way out,” he said.

Armenia “will lovingly welcome our brothers and sisters from Nagorno-Karabakh”, Pashinyan added, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

The Armenian leader also alluded to a schism with Moscow, saying the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) was “insufficient” to protect the country.

The CSTO members pledge to defend one another from outside attacks. But, bogged down in its own war in Ukraine, Russia has refused to come to Armenia’s assistance.

The fate of the ethnic Armenian population, which makes up the majority of Nagorno-Karabakh’s population, has raised concerns in Moscow, Washington and Brussels.

Separatist fighters from Nagorno-Karabakh – a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but previously governed by the breakaway Republic of Artsakh – were forced to declare a ceasefire on Wednesday after a decisive 24-hour military operation by the much larger Azerbaijani military.

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev declared victory over the enclave on Thursday, saying it was fully under Baku’s control and the idea of an independent Nagorno-Karabakh was finally confined to history.

He promised to guarantee the rights and security of Armenians living in the region, but years of hate speech and violence between the rivals have left deep scars. Azerbaijan, which is mainly Muslim, has said the Armenians, who are Christian, can leave if they want.

Vehicles seized from Nagorno-Karabakh forces are displayed at a position held by Azerbaijan’s military [Emmanuel Dunand/AFP]

‘Disgrace and a shame’

Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to Armenians, lies in an area that, over the centuries, has come under the sway of Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans and the Soviets. It was claimed by both Azerbaijan and Armenia after the fall of the Russian Empire in 1917.

Azerbaijan has said it will guarantee rights and integrate the region, but the Armenians have said they fear repression.

“Our people do not want to live as part of Azerbaijan – 99.9 percent prefer to leave our historic lands,” said David Babayan, an adviser to the Karabakh leadership. “The fate of our poor people will go down in history as a disgrace and a shame for the Armenian people.”

Hikmet Hajiyev, the foreign policy adviser to Azerbaijan’s president, told Al Jazeera that civilians in the region have been asked for a “direct dialogue” about their future, “including political integration [and] socioeconomic issues”.

‘Very much in danger’

Sheila Paylan, an international human rights lawyer, said she does not believe ethnic Armenians will be treated fairly under Azerbaijani rule.

“There is a long-standing policy of hatred towards the Armenians that goes back decades. That just doesn’t stop overnight. There’s no reasonable basis to trust there will be any safety or security or rights protected for the Armenians of Karabakh … They are very much in danger right now,” Paylan told Al Jazeera.

Armenia has called for the immediate deployment of a United Nations mission to monitor human rights and security in Nagorno-Karabakh.

A months-long blockade by Azerbaijani forces has left many in Nagorno-Karabakh without food and fuel.

Armenian authorities said about 150 tonnes of humanitarian aid from Russia and another 65 tonnes of flour shipped by the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) had arrived in Nagorno-Karabakh.

“Given the scale of humanitarian needs, we are increasing our presence there with specialized personnel in health, forensics, protection, and weapons contamination,” the ICRC said in a statement.

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Gunshots were heard in the separatist stronghold Stepanakert, Armenia’s state news agency Armenpress reported on Thursday, citing the region’s Ministry of Internal Affairs.

A journalist with the AFP news agency confirmed that some blasts were heard in the city, the de facto capital of the troubled region known as Khankendi by Azeris.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense, however, denied the report, saying they were “completely false”.

The claims came after delegations from the warring sides started talks in the Azeri city of Yevlakh.

The rivals reached a ceasefire agreement on Wednesday, that could put an end to decades of aspirations for the enclave’s independence from Baku. The deal came 24 hours after Azerbaijan launched a new offensive in the secessionist region, aimed at restoring full control of the territory. It justified its military action, claiming that six people, including two civilians, had died due to mines placed by Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Nagorno-Karabakh is recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan, but the 120,000 ethnic Armenians living there dominate the region. Baku and Yerevan have been vying for control over the region for decades and have fought two wars.

Fighting on Tuesday lasted a day, before separatist forces of the self-styled “Republic of Artsakh” accepted a ceasefire whose terms signaled the area would return under Baku’s control.

According to the Nagorno-Karabakh Office for Human Rights, at least 200 ethnic Armenians died, including 10 civilians. Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify the death toll.

“Karabakh is Azerbaijan,” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev triumphantly said in a televised speech on Wednesday, adding that his “iron fist” had consigned the idea of a separatist Armenian Karabakh to history.

The separatist Armenian forces said they were forced to accept the deal after Azerbaijani forces broke through their lines and seized a number of heights and strategic road junctions.

Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense said Armenian forces in Karabakh had agreed to “lay down their weapons, abandon combat positions and military posts and completely disarm”, adding that all arms and heavy equipment were being handed over to the Azerbaijani military.

Baku had demanded that the separatist political authorities in Karabakh disband before any talks are held about the future of the region, which Azerbaijan wants to fully integrate.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence said the ceasefire will be implemented in coordination with Russian peacekeepers, while Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan – who is facing calls to resign – said Yerevan was not involved in preparing the text of the truce.

“We hope that military escalation will not continue, because, in the current conditions, it is very important to ensure stability and stop combat actions,” Pashinyan said in a TV address to Armenians.

He also noted that Armenia has not had troops in Karabakh since August 2021.

Thousands of people gathered at Republic Square, in the heart of Yerevan, decrying the government’s perceived failure to support Armenian separatists. Looking ahead, there are fears for the ethnic Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh.

Meanwhile, thousands of Armenians also massed at the Stepanakert airport. Others took shelter with Russian peacekeepers in the hope of being flown out.

“The question on everybody’s lips is how Azerbaijan is going to handle the issue of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh,” Yulia Shapovalova, a journalist in Moscow, told Al Jazeera.

Azerbaijain’s claim of victory over the region ushers in yet another twist to the tumultuous history of mountainous Nagorno-Karabakh, which over the centuries has come under the sway of Persians, Turks, Russians, Ottomans and Soviets.

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International transit between Iran and Azerbaijan increased by 58%, Azerbaijani Deputy Prime Minister Shahin Mustafayev said on Monday.

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Upon his arrival in Baku Wed., the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said that Iran welcomes further economic and trade cooperation with Azerbaijan.

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Back in May, soldiers filmed themselves overrunning enemy outposts shouting in broken Russian at their opponents to leave, orchestrated with kicks to backsides, punches or volleys from assault rifles fired into the air.

In picturesque alpine meadows, platoons of Armenian and Azeri troops faced off, often just a few meters apart. It was a tinderbox that burst into flames on the afternoon of November 16.

While there is no independently verifiable information, military sources and local media reported a full-scale battle for several hours along a stretch of border between Azerbaijan and Armenia on or near Mount Ishkhanasar.

Both sides have reported casualties; Armenia said at least six soldiers were killed, while Azerbaijan announced the deaths of at least seven troops.

Mobile footage shows an Azerbaijani artillery unit bombarding Armenian positions. Armenia’s Ministry of Defence released a video of Azerbaijani armored vehicles being struck by guided weapons.

A harrowing video shot at night in a blizzard appears to show Azerbaijani soldiers beating uniformed Armenian regulars on the ground.

This is Armenia and Azerbaijan’s new conflict: for control of disputed borders defined by Soviet cartographers.

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Until the last year’s war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, those borders were buffered by territories inside Azerbaijan under de facto Armenian control since the 1990s.

But with Azerbaijan’s military victory and the recapturing of almost all of its lost territories, the border areas between Armenia’s Syunik and Gegharkunik provinces, and Azerbaijan’s newly established East Zangezur region have become militarized front lines.

Olesya Vartanyan, a senior analyst with the Brussels-headquartered International Crisis Group, said that in the mountainous terrain, both armies are keen to establish positions on the best available ground.

“The current daily problem is that troops of opposite sides do not have communication with each other. The same is between Azerbaijani and Armenian Joint Staffs. When one side observes several big trucks with soldiers, he right away suspects possible preparations for an assault. There is no way to check before starting an attack.”

Syunik Province separates Azerbaijan from its exclave, the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic, in some places by less than 40km (25 miles).

Crucially, roads that connect Armenian towns and villages in Syunik run through Azerbaijani territory, and here Azerbaijani forces have established checkpoints.

Armenia’s Human Rights Defender Arman Tatoyan has accused Azerbaijan of a deliberate policy of isolation, describing the nearly impassible alternative routes villagers have been forced to take. School children and teachers have been unable to get to school.

“The blockade of the Goris-Kapan road or the so-called Azerbaijani border and customs checkpoints will cause violations of the rights of the civilian population and severe humanitarian issues, including the isolation of a number of civilian communities,” Tatoyan told Armenian media.

Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a decades-old dispute over 
Nagorno-Karabakh [File: Artem Mikryukov/Reuters]

While Azerbaijan maintains that Armenia provoked the latest fighting, geolocation of some of the footage recorded since Tuesday strongly indicates incursions by Azerbaijani armed forces inside Armenia proper.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan claimed on Tuesday that since May, 41 square kilometers (15 square miles) of sovereign Armenian territory have been seized by Azerbaijan in the border areas.

Azerbaijan may have a strategy: to pressure Armenia to conclude negotiations following last year’s ceasefire agreement over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Those terms included a commitment by Armenia to allow “unobstructed access” between the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic and Azerbaijan.

Fuad Shahbaz, a military analyst from Baku, says the latest fighting is a result of those negotiations failing to achieve their objectives, including the demarcation of the borders.

“Yerevan is not ready for concessions on a transit route and I guess Baku lost patience. It was hoping to resolve the issue before the winter during a planned November meeting in Moscow which was postponed.”

While Shahbaz believes the opening of a route to Nakhchivan would benefit both Azerbaijan and Armenia by linking up with Turkey, for many Armenians it poses a direct threat to Armenian statehood.

“The Azerbaijan strategic goal is to establish at least de facto control over Syunik province,” says Benyamin Poghosyan, a Yerevan-based political scientist. “President Aliyev of Azerbaijan has stated many times publicly that Syunik province artificially separates the Turkic world spanning from Istanbul to Kazakhstan.”

Russian presence

Russia’s military presence in Armenia is supposed to guarantee Armenian security, and Russian boots on the ground in Karabakh are helping to maintain a fragile peace, albeit with occasional outbreaks of localized violence.

So far, Armenia has not officially requested Russian military intervention as part of its Collective Security Treaty with Moscow. But Moscow can exert influence in a way that no other mediator can.

“It is the only regional power with an actual military presence on the ground and a serious political say with leaders in both capitals. So it’s no surprise that Moscow is succeeding. Especially where the OSCE Minsk Group has been struggling to renew its functions,” said Vartanyan.

Nagorno-Karabakh is internationally recognised as part of Azerbaijan, even 
by Armenia, but is populated and until recently was controlled by 
ethnic Armenians [File: Reuters]

The so-called Minsk Group is co-chaired by Russia, France and the United States and was established in 1994 after the first Karabakh war to work for a permanent peace between Armenian and Azerbaijan.

“Only recently the co-chairs found a way to propose an agenda and a format that can satisfy both sides. But they still have a long way to go before conversations that can lead to real change.”

Intervention by Russia’s Defence Minister Sergey Shoigu led to a cessation in the fighting on November 16. For the time being, the guns are silent.

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“I sincerely congratulate the Victory Day of Azerbaijan and this glorious day that heralds the liberation of the lands of Karabakh,” President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Twitter.

He also commemorated with gratitude those “heroes who fought unblinkingly” for the homeland and fell in battle, as well as brave veterans.

The liberation of Shusha last Nov. 8 played a crucial role in the fate of the Second Karabakh War, also known as the Patriotic War, in which Azerbaijan liberated some 300 settlements from Armenian occupation.

Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay also issued a message on Twitter marking the day.

Saying that Azerbaijan “crowned its epic struggle of 44 days with a victory one year ago today,” Oktay wished eternal rest to those who lost their lives in battle. His tweet included the hashtag “One Nation, Two States,” meaning Turkey and Azerbaijan.

On Dec. 3, 2020, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev signed a decree establishing Victory Day on Nov. 8.

Shusha, Azerbaijan’s cultural and historical capital, was liberated last fall after 28 years of Armenian occupation.

During the 44-day conflict, which ended with a Russian-brokered truce last November, Azerbaijan liberated several strategic cities and nearly 300 of its settlements and villages from nearly three decades of Armenian occupation.

Relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan – the two former Soviet republics – have been tense since 1991, when the Armenian military occupied Nagorno-Karabakh, also known as Upper Karabakh, a territory internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and seven adjacent regions.

A joint Turkish-Russian center was established to monitor the truce.

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According to the document, for the aim to ensure the implementation of repair and construction work in the damaged educational institutions of the city of Ganja, Aghdam, Goranboy and Tartar districts in connection with the elimination of damage caused as a result of Armenia’s aggression, from the reserve fund of Azerbaijan’s president envisaged in the state budget for 2021, seven million manats ($4.1 million) will be initially allocated to the Ministry of Education.

The Ministry of Finance was instructed to provide funding in the amount specified in this order, the Cabinet of Ministers – to resolve issues arising from this order.

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